‘Barr campaign is a disaster for McCain’

The Richmond Democrat takes a close look at state polling data and reports:

A growing number of polls are starting to include Bob Barr and Ralph Nader. Nader doesn’t appear to be a big deal: he’s stuck at 1-2% or lower and isn’t costing Obama any states that I can tell. Bob Barr is something altogether different. Bob Barr could have a serious impact on this race. Barr is polling at 5, 6, 7, and even a staggering 8% in Colorado. Bob Barr has the potential to knee cap John McCain.

After a number of polling charts, The Richmond Democrat concludes:

If Bob Barr gets on the ballots in a significant number of states, John McCain is toast.

31 Responses to “‘Barr campaign is a disaster for McCain’”

  1. Laine Says:

    Ummm…The only polls that have Barr polling so high is Zogby the rest of the national polls have them polling even or have Nader slightly ahead.

  2. George Phillies Says:

    His charts have no four or six way polls, and do not show what effect Bob Barr has.

  3. Jonathan Says:

    George why don’t you support the nominee of the Libertarian Party? If you had recieved the nomination you would want the same. Look how the Democrats came together to support Obama. Look at how Guiliani and Romney supports McCain only because he is the nominee of the same party. Why can’t you be a leader and do the same. You will be better off for it

  4. MPM Says:

    I can understand why he doesn’t but he could improve both the Barr campaign and his own standing if he were to do something like tell Barr “All right, I’ll fully support you and do all I can for you in MA and NH if you come out with a strong statement in support of (short list of important issues like gay rights, religious freedom, directly recanting past mistakes etc.).” Stonewalling any dialogue like that stalls progress. Heck Barr already put out a press release strongly reaffirming he commitment to religious freedom, perhaps that was in part to please George/the Mass. LP?

  5. Teddy Says:

    The Libertarian Party will do good this year even with Mr. Phillies working against us.

  6. Gavin Young Says:

    I strongly urge disgruntled Republicans, especially those who love liberty, who are opposed to the Iraq war, and who believe in what Ron Paul says, to vote for Bob Barr instead of John McCain and instead of not voting for President. Likewise I urge disgruntled liberal Democrats who are thinking of not voting for President, to vote for Ralph Nader or Cynthia McKinney instead. I urge all disgruntled Republicans and Democratics to insist that the government remove barriers to third-parties, but enacting Instant Runoff Voting in every state.

  7. Arizona Indie Says:

    Maybe Mr. Phillies thinks the beliefs, values and standards of the Libertarian Party are a little more valuable than the thirty pieces of silver received for betraying those principals by supporting the Barr-Root fiasco for freedom.

  8. Mike Gillis Says:

    I’m not sure how they can objectively count out Nader, who has polled higher than Barr more often than not.

    They both tend to appear in the 2-6% range most of the time. with Nader usually slightly ahead.

    I think the author of the article is selectively choosing his polls.

  9. Steve Meier Says:

    Those who think Dr Phillies is working against the LP and its candidate for president are ill informed. I would ask those here to think about the negative results of there words before they send them.

    Keep in mind that Dr. Phillies, has been working with the National LP’s to get his name replaced with Barr’s on the MA ballot. For NH we still don’t know if the Barr team will get enough petitions to make it to the ballot. Until Barr does it would be foolish to think about trying to remove Dr. Phillies name.

  10. Jonathan Says:

    Correction, Dr. Phillies is not working to have his name replaced. He is on record for this.

  11. Jonathan Says:

    Dear friend,

    Please excuse the rushed tone of this message but the situation is heating up in West Virginia.

    When I wrote to you on Friday, I had until the close of business on Monday to raise $43,000.

    I have good news and bad news.

    The bad news is that we fell about $3,000 short of our goal.

    The good news is that over 662 supporters donated to our effort and we were able to raise $40,030! Thank you!

    Our campaign manager, Russ Verney, is a hard-nosed guy but he recognizes that the support is there and, while it’s a long shot, we still have a chance to make it on the ballot in West Virginia.

    Russ has given me the green light to continue the drive. We’re going to go for it and I’ll need your help more than ever.

    I’ve been on the ground in WV for less than a week and have been able to get 18 petitioners hired, trained and working.

    That’s not enough, I need 30 more people by the end of the week.

    I had been assured by the state employment agency that they would help hire local petitioners to fill the gap. That fell apart yesterday when they informed me that there was not much that they could do because of internal policies.

    You’ve gotta love bureaucracy . . .

    In order to make up the shortfall in manpower, I’m going to need to fly in more people immediately.

    I’m going to make a big request that I need you to seriously consider. This is an “either/or” so please read and consider both options:

    EITHER . . .

    Visit the “Wild and Wonderful” state of West Virginia!
    If you’re willing to petition in West Virginia and can take time out of our schedule until August 1st. I need you here by Friday.

    It’s beautiful country, with nice people, and you’ll be supporting a great cause.

    If you can take the time to come to West Virginia for the duration (August 1) and are comfortable asking strangers to sign a piece of paper, please contact me immediately by calling 877-465-6080.

    OR YOU CAN . . .

    Sponsor a petitioner to travel to West Virginia!
    If you cannot take the time out yourself, I completely understand, but you can still help in a very big way by sponsoring someone who can make this short-notice trip.

    Each supporter that can petition for Barr/Root is going to cost at least $250 to travel plus about $50 a night at a not-so-luxurious hotel. Please make a donation and cover what you can.

    A $50, $250 or even a contribution of $25 will help us cover these added expenses. Click here to donate.

    Please give us a hand with this effort as there are only nine days left to get the job done.

    THANK YOU for your continued support. We could not do this without you.

    Shane Cory
    Deputy Campaign Manager
    Bob Barr 2008

  12. The Democratic Republican Says:

    I’m just going to post this whenever I see a Barr post:

    Tom Knapp is a tool. He represents all of the worst traits of the whiner fundamentalists: bitch about how bad the LP is but keep a foot in the door so that when the circle jerk known as the Boston Tea Party gets laughed out the door he can come back in and have his little pity party in the middle of things.

    We (the LP) should seriously have a membership requirement that prevents this little running back and forth BS.

  13. Steve Says:

    Jonathan Says:

    “Correction, Dr. Phillies is not working to have his name replaced. He is on record for this.”

    I believe the record for MA is that Dr. Phillies is working with the ACLU and LP National Com. to have his name replaced.

    See the article:
    http://lastfreevoice.wordpress.com/2008/06/19/aclu-agrees-to-represent-lpmass/

    NH does not allow substitution. So Barr must get on the ballot on his own. It takes 3000 valid signatures, 1500 from each of the two congressional districts. If Barr fails there will be one Libertarian Presidential candidate that NH can vote for. If Barr collects the signatures then it might make sense to try to remove Dr. Phillies from the ballot.

    This is written record.

  14. Brandon Magoon Says:

    Nader has much greater name recognition then Barr so if they are polling even at this point that suggests that Barr could have a huge impact. Moreover Nader doesn’t have a party so unless he wins (not likely) his long term impact will be nil. Barr on the other hand does have a party that can build on his outcome. The real question is when is Barr going to start campaigning?

  15. George Phillies Says:

    Jonathan,

    You are a liar, and I am starting with your good point. That goes for your friends, too. You are also not a Libertarian, because you are advocating fraud for political purposes.

    Let me take this from the top.

    My position on the original article is that the columnist’s data does not prove what he is claiming. He goes on claiming that Barr is damaging the McCain campaign—a fairly worthless objective—*and his polling charts do not include Barr*. He had no evidence as to whether Barr is drawing from McCain or Obama, and therefore the claim in the report is false. You support of the claim is using fraud—making a false claim—in order to support a political objective.

    I am advocating fact-based politics, not conservative fantasy-based politics.

    With respect to Massachusetts, I have spent more than four thousand dollars of my own money on ballot access for the Presidential candidate. It was Sean Haugh’s decision, not mine, that we should petition as we are, and litigate for substitution, rather than restarting the petition drive and losing a few thousand signatures.

    In fact, the only reason we learned that there was a problem with substitution was that I took the initiative to ask the state, on the basis of their letter of last year, exactly how substitution was to be accomplished. I am the person who arranged for ACLU intervention in the substitution issue, and am the lead contact in the legal negotiation drive. If I had wanted to kill substitution, it would have been trivial to do so.

    With respect to the petition drive, I can report that it is complete, that 250 sets of nominating papers were mailed for validation to 250 town clerks, with me doing about >80% of the work of assembling the mailing, and that another 75 or so sets of nominating papers were hand-delivered to town clerks for validation, with the sorting being carried out because I donated the use of my home—well, about 2500 square feet of it—for the sorters to work. And, I anticipate, when we have the signatures ready to go, I will be leading the delivery party to the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s office.

    New Hampshire has never had substitution, a fact known in advance.

    It is inobvious how a Libertarian Presidential campaign is going to advance the party when its lawn sign—at least the one I found—does not include the party name, and ditto for the front page of the Barr web site.

    You may contrast this with my web site at ChooseGeorge.org, whose site is headed

    George Phillies
    Libertarian for President in 2008

  16. Jonathan Says:

    I stand corrected and I apologize for the misinformation on the ballot substitution I was given.
    However,, as far as marketing, I believe that is up to what the campaign feels will draw more attention and more voters.

    Obviously you would do things differently and that’s fine. Most people do not know who George Phillies is and well you need the Libertarian name for Branding while Bob Barr is a well known politican who may not need it. I don’t know which way is better but you cannot fault Barr for it. In every interview he mentions the Libertarian Party.

    In addition your posts are always very negative towards Bob Barr and the campaign always looking at the glass half empty. When it was mentioned Barr is on track to break Badnarik’s fundraising of 1 million dollars you tried your best way to throw statistics to show the opposite. Unsuccessfully I might add.

    And there a myriad of examples on this. You know you could UNIFY this Party if you really and i mean REALLY wanted to.

  17. Anti-Corporate Says:

    George Phillies is right that the data do not show what they are described as showing. It is typical for people to talk about what effect a candidate is having without understanding how properly to analyze that effect. The article cited above it just one of innumerably many examples.

    The issue of being a “spoiler” is even more problematic, involving, as it does, counterfactual reasoning of a very tricky sort. For example when people blame Nader for spoiling the Florida election in 2000, they assume that if Nader had not run (the counterfactual), then Gore would have won.

    Here are some simpler considerations. The blog post cited above says that Barr is doing better than Nader and bases this on an unsystematic perusal of Pollster.com’s data for individual states. But notice this data, also available on Pollster.com:

    http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvoand3s.php

    According to it, Nader is doing better than Barr nationally.

    Dr. Phillies might also regard this as wishful thinking, or “fantasy-based politics” (and he might be right). And he might regard it as advancing a political objective on the basis of a falsehood; though in this case I am not the one asserting the falsehood—in fact I’m arguing against it every chance I get. But here is what I hope is the effect of all the “spoiler” talk: I hope the Democrats put Barr into the debates and that this leads the Republicans to insist on including Nader, too. It would be poetic justice, in my view, for the spoiler arguments to have the effect of getting the so called “spoilers” more attention and votes!

    (For the record, I am a Nader supporter, a Phillies admirer, and an advocate for third party candidates in general—this includes Barr.)

  18. Freeman Says:

    McCain’s far too white to be toast.

  19. Freeman Says:

    Gavin, I ask that you consider this more deeply. Instant Runoff is probably about the worst form of voting anyone can name. Advocate Approval Voting or else a nonbinary form of Range.

  20. DebbieKat Says:

    I agree with Gavin Young and Anti-Corporate (and George too!).

    I’m also a Nader supporter now (was formerly for Gravel). I have had no intention of voting for Obama during this entire campaign. Obama is as much a progressive as Barr is a Libertarian. The Democrats are only maintaining a presence at this point because people are scared out of their minds of a McCain presidency. I refuse to buy into that. Nader most closely represents my views of all candidates currently running.

    Oh, and George, you were in my short-list of Libertarian candidates I liked behind Gravel! :-)

  21. Citizens For A Better Veterans Home[s] Says:

    Doctor Phillies: Let Jonathan I - should - apologize - for - pretty - much - every - thing - I - post keep up the intrusive inappropriate stuff. Soon, like GE and his kissin cousin Cody ‘The text thief’ Quirk, folk will just skip their lies, er, ah posts entirely!

    And I speak as some one whom tolerates you and is not a fan!———Don Lake

  22. Tennessee Mike Says:

    Give it up George, you lost.

    If you want to go vote for Nader or Mckinney, or somebody, that’s cool, I can even see you coming out for Obama!

  23. DIAMOND DAVE Says:

    George Phillies
    Libertarian for President in 2008

    George is a funny guy still cleverly or so he thinks, posting his nomination and website. If the Barr campaign believes you will do the right thing ,boy they got a thing coming. They should read some of your posts filled with sour grapes.

  24. GREEN DAD Says:

    The question is why would a serious mature man, let me re-phrase that, why would a so called serious candidate for the Libertarian nomination for President such as George Phillies spend his time posting in these blog pages filled with kids. I also saw him post today at IPR’s web site today jabbing at Barr again. George loves that web site since all thye do is place anti Barr posts. Again don’t you got something better to do. Do you have kids, ? wife? or aren’t you suppost to take care of the Nazichussetts ballot substitution. talk about free time. Thank G-d you are not President of my condominium association let alone President of the United States

  25. wtf Says:

    Why is Phillies STILL petitioning for ballot access in New Hampshire?!

  26. Steve Meier Says:

    If Dr Phillies were still petitioning for ballot access in NH it would be surprising because acording to
    http://www.ballot-access.org/2008/06/19/new-hampshire-libertarian-petition-for-two-statewide-offices-is-valid/
    he already has enough petitions for NH. Perhaps you are confused by the idea that George is still collecting patitions in MA. For MA this is reported as being a strategic decision made by LPNC. Now what is realy abserd, is that Phillies spends his own money his own time and makes the connection with the ACLU to replace his name on the MA ballot with Barr’s and do you people thank him? No you abuse him!

    Now, Green Dad, Diamond Dave and Tennessee Mike (could you all be one person?) I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt and presume you are ignorant rather then malicious. If you were gracious Barr supporters you would be thanking George for all the time and effort and money that he has put in and is ineffect transfer the benefit to the Barr campeign.

  27. Steve Meier Says:

    I may have to correct myself. According to USATODAY
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-07-22-nadar_N.htm

    George may be 130 signatures short to qualify for NH. Now is it in the best interest of the LP to collect those couple of hundred signatures or just gamble on Barr getting enough? To me the idea is to have a name on the ballot so that voters in NH can cast a vote that 1) elects a libertarian president or 2) makes it easier to get libertarians elected to state office or 3) makes the libertarian philosophy and hopefully its party more viable. So wtf, if it were your call would you get those couple of hundred signatures or just bet all your dimes on getting Barr on the ballot?

    I do love game theory questions.

  28. Clark Says:

    THE DEMOPUBLICAN REPUBLICRAT POOPS: We (the LP) should seriously have a membership requirement that prevents this little running back and forth BS. (END)

    ...LOL!..how about a requirement that some 300 or so phony, hand-placed, goddamned fool republicunts/conservatives masquerading as “Libertarians” can’t nominate for pres. AN OBVIOUS REPUBLICUNT/CONSERVATIVE BARFBAG..

    GREEN DUD POPS OFF: “why would a so called serious candidate for the Libertarian nomination for President such as George Phillies spend his time posting in these blog pages filled with kids.” (END)

    ...as stoooooooooooopid as many of the green dud republicrats here appear, this is the BEST blog i can find…(i hear there is, unlike most/all other blogs of which i’m aware, at least one guy here who can explain/understands the origin, nature, etc. of ‘a dollar’ too!)

    ...PLEASE POINT OUT A BETTER BLOG, green dud..or stfu.. ;o)

  29. Eric Dondero Says:

    In response to Steve Mier saying that Phillies and his team “still don’t know” if the National LP will be successful in New Hampshire, the fact is, the Phillies team still doesn’t know for sure about their own renegate ticket. As of late last week they were 200 to 300 signatures short.

    The Barr team has assembled some of the best petitioners in the county to come here. I’d place my confidence in the pros.

  30. Eric Dondero Says:

    The press is already playing up the “factionalism” within the Libertarian Party over the two proposed Presidential tickets for New Hampshire.

    Last week the Nashua Telegraph poked fun at the fact that the LP might have two separate candidates on the ballot. This morning, the Concord Monitor mentions the same, and quotes the US Senate candidate Ken Blevins who is backing Phillies.

    Regardless, this is not a good situation for the regular New Hampshire voter. Phillies insistance to remain on the ballot as a renegade candidate
    causes great confusion for regular NH residents.

  31. Matt Says:

    I just stumbled across this thread. What is going on here? Isn’t it hard enough to get any kind of a voice for libertarian ideas among mainstream media, mainstream candidates, and mainstream America? With libertarian folks apparently devoting so much energy to fighting amongst ourselves, it’s little wonder we can’t make a dent in the mainstream consciousness. While there may be some of us who prefer keeping the label of third party, fringe element, I’d prefer to take libertarian ideas mainstream and effect some actual change. Bob Barr wouldn’t have been my first choice, but if we can unite behind him, maybe we’ll actually get some mainstream ideas for libertarian ideas. Isn’t that the goal?

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