Poll shows Barr could throw Georgia to Obama

A New InsiderAdvantage survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr received 6% of the vote.

McCain: 44%
Obama: 43%
Barr: 6%
Undecided: 7%

Georgia is a must-win state for McCain. Assuming that most of Barr’s votes come from Republicans (he’s a former Republican congressman from Georgia), this shows that Barr’s votes could throw the state to Obama if the race remains close.

According to InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery:

“As to the Bob Barr effect, Barr’s numbers dropped slightly overall from our poll of Georgia in March. However, he remains at a 6% level, healthy for a Libertarian. And among senior voters he receives nearly 10% of the vote.

Barr’s strength with seniors is significant because seniors are also McCain’s strength—there is a clear divide in the poll with McCain carrying the 45-plus voters, and Obama the under-45 voters. Barr is hurting McCain where McCain is strongest.

40 Responses to “Poll shows Barr could throw Georgia to Obama”

  1. Green in Brooklyn Says:

    Everyone should e-mail the folks at Insider Advantage and ask why McKinney, who represented the state of Georgia for six terms in congress, was excluded from this poll!

    [email protected]

  2. George Phillies Says:

    Instead of assuming that Barr draws Republican votes, you could trace through pollster.com to the actual poll, read the crosstabs, and find out. Barr draws Republicans over Democrats by no more than a 3:2 margin, meaning that If Barr draws 5% of the vote, he shifts the plurality in favor of Obama by only 1%.

    In contrast, the latest IN9 poll, the Sodrel-Hill-Schansberg(L) race, finds that the L candidate draws evenly from Democrats and from Republicans.

    In Green in Brooklyn is right that the poll is flaky, because it omits candidates.

  3. Robert Capozzi Says:

    Has McKinney been nominated yet?

  4. disinter Says:

    So one fascist will win over another. How will that help the LP or promote libertarian ideology?

  5. Robert Capozzi Says:

    disinter,
    By building brand awareness through consequential media coverage.

  6. Kyle B Says:

    The Green Party doesn’t have ballot access in Georgia currently. I would guess that is the major reason why McKinney was not included in the poll

  7. Eric Dondero Says:

    Phillies is counting in “identified” Democrats, as in Reagan Democrats, who are not really Democrats at all, but functional Republicans.

    Libertarians have little if anything in common with Democrats. They are in short, the enemy of all Libertarians.

    Yes, there’s a few blue collar Dems out there, who are really Republicans but just don’t know it, who we can reach out too. But regular Dems are by and large the enemy of the Libertarians.

    Why else would they be so forcefully blocking libertarian petition drives?

  8. disinter Says:

    By building brand awareness through consequential media coverage.

    The only “brand awareness” it will “build” is one that portrays the LP as a cesspool for failed Republicans (ie Republican-lite). The LP should be winning elections in no time…

  9. Green in Brooklyn Says:

    Capozzi,

    It won’t be official until July 12 at the convention, but here is the official delegate count (their totals are off for some reason - correct totals below)- 419 needed to win the nomination. I can’t see any possibility where McKinney does not get the nomination. Unlike 2004, where there was a fairly strong NOTA vote, which settled on Cobb as an alternative to Nader, this time the vote if strongly for McKinney - she’ll win handily on the first vote.

    Cynthia McKinney (307.5)
    Ralph Nader (137) (not seeking nomination)
    Kent Mesplay (29.5)
    Jesse Johnson (28)
    Kat Swift (23)
    Jared Ball (11) (dropped out to endorse McKinney)
    Brown (9) (Dropped out, not sure if she endorsed anyone)
    Howie Hawkins (8) (Nader proxy)
    NOTA (9)
    Uncommitted (39)

  10. Green in Brooklyn Says:

    Dondero,

    in answer to your last question - the Democrats are equal-opportunity squashers of democracy when it comes to 3rd parties and independents.

  11. Robert Capozzi Says:

    green,
    Yes, but to expect her to be included in that poll seems far-fetched.

  12. Anti-Corporate Says:

    Hopefully the mainstream media will pick up the “Barr throws Georgia to Obama line.” What’s the best prospect for a state where “Nader throws it to McCain?” A couple states like that and the mainstream media will have to start talking about Barr and Nader.

  13. Thomas L. Knapp Says:

    Quoth Eric Dondero:

    “Phillies is counting in ‘identified’ Democrats, as in Reagan Democrats, who are not really Democrats at all, but functional Republicans. ... Yes, there’s a few blue collar Dems out there, who are really Republicans but just don’t know it, who we can reach out too.”

    Ah, it’s time for “definitions for Dondero” again!

    Functional Republican, n. A putative Democrat who hates black people, gay people and freedom.

  14. Richard Says:

    Don’t be silly. George Phillies is correct. Libertarians draw from both sides. Both parties have Libertarian caucuses. Those are who we’re reaching for as well as others who are realizing the communist/facist actions of both parties.

  15. GoNolzOhio Says:

    Dondero’s right. Its only the democrats who are blocking petition drives. As we all know, the Republicans, more so than staying in power themselves, wish to ensure that elections are a fair fight. LOL

  16. Catholic Trotskyist Says:

    Glory unto the newborn king, Barack Obama, for the LORD VANQUISHES HIS ENEMIES, AND SETS HIM UPON HIS THRONE.

    Thanks for this great news. It makes my day even happier, as I had a wonderful dream last night about spitting in the face of a Ralph Nader petitioner, and having him beg for forgiveness from the Lord and supporting the Obama Revolution. Meanwhile I gladly signed petitions for Barr and Baldwin, as they are temporary allies of the Revolution.

    The LORD IS MY LIGHT AND MY SALVATION, IN WHOM SHALL I BE AFRAID? Amen.

  17. Hugh Jass Says:

    “So one fascist will win over another. How will that help the LP or promote libertarian ideology?”

    Not necessarily saying this will work, but the theory goes that if Barr can prove that enough voters have libertarian leanings such that in can make one fascist with over another, the latter fascist might retune his platform to be more libertarian-leaning.

  18. Justin Grover Says:

    I’d disagree that the party draws equally from both of the status-quo parties equally. We seem to draw equally from left and right, true, but I’d guess that we have more “Former Republicans” than “former Democrats” and more “Former Lefties (left independent, green, etc)” than “Former Democrats”.

  19. Stefan Says:

    Ha ha Eric, Barr said Bush is worse than Clinton, which is 100% correct. Many Republicans cannot stand him anymore, not that you would be one of them. Clinton was fiscally more conservative than Bush and if you take all the Patriot Act, military commissions act, suspension of habeas corpus, war on drugs, war on true conservative-libertarians, disrespect for the constitution etc. etc. he should be impeached worse than Clinton.

    Dr. Phillies: good, interesting and significant research indeed. I really do believe Barr may take some Democrat vote away, also from Democrats that would otherwise never vote for any other party and the Libertarians should be more attractive than the current Republicans to them. (Hillary Clinton’s brother has indicated he may vote for Barr…Eric’s memory seems very short…and they were no Reagan Democrats).

    One should also take into account that there are about 40% Independents who can vote either way.
    Also, one wonders how much the Greens, Nader/Gonzales and the CP will get. McKinney could get a substantial number of say women that voted for Hillary CLinton in the primaries as well as some Obama supporters.
    It is going to be very interesting.

  20. DIAMOND DAVE Says:

    wow who is more insane Catholic trotsky , Disinter or McCain?

  21. GREEN DAD Says:

    Disinter can’t help he has mental problems, Catholic trotsky just seeks attention, so I would say McCain is since he is very conscious of his deeds.

  22. David Tomlin Says:

    I suspect many older Georgia voters appreciated Barr’s diatribes against sodomy. They may be less appreciative when they discover his new views on DOMA and medical marijuana.

    It should not be forgotten that the Clinton administration also took advantage of a terrorist event - Oklahoma City - to ram through legislation expanding law enforcement power at the expense of civil liberties.

  23. Tom Bryant Says:

    “The LP should be winning elections in no time…”

    The LP wins quite often here in Michigan. But instead of whining online all day long, we actually gasp campaign.

    I encourage Disinter to try doing real politics sometime soon. Get yourself elected to an office. It’s a lot of fun.

  24. timothy west Says:

    he doesn’t believe in politics. To him, the LP is better off not winning elections because it will be purer.

    To help understand the mindset, insert ‘Jesus’ or ‘God’ or ‘prayer’ in place of whenever the word ‘principles’ is used. When he says something has no principles, just insert he word. You’ll notice it fits perfectly.

    theres no difference in the mindset-just the way it’s expressed.

  25. Robert Capozzi Says:

    ...it’s called the “persecution complex.” It can be quite dysfunctional.

  26. disinter Says:

    the latter fascist might retune his platform to be more libertarian-leaning.

    They all use libertarian rhetoric to get elected, then do the exact opposite once they get elected and have to answer to the money that got them there. Of course gullible idiots, like barfers, are still falling for this.

  27. disinter Says:

    The LP wins quite often here in Michigan.

    Wow. You should have a state-full of libertarian dog catchers in no time.

  28. disinter Says:

    Bob Barf: “Well, I was really against all of that stuff before I was for it. But, now that I’m for it, you should vote for me anyway (before I’m against it again)”

  29. Andy Says:

    “Why else would they be so forcefully blocking libertarian petition drives?”

    Republicans have done plenty of blocking of libertarian petition drives as well.

  30. Craig Says:

    How about throwing Georgia to…. Barr?

    And come to think of it, why shouldn’t Bob Barr be in the debates? He’s served longer in the US Congress than Obama has.

  31. Craig Says:

    “Libertarians have little if anything in common with Democrats. They are in short, the enemy of all Libertarians.”

    How about respect for civil liberties, opposition to the war in Iraq, and tolerance for alternate lifestyles, for starters?

    It’s Republicans who have little in common with Libertarians these days—the GOP is the party of war, torture, and big government.

    And I don’t consider either side our enemy—most of them just haven’t seen the light yet.

  32. Eric Dondero Says:

    I got 465 signatures yesterday for Barr/Root in a heavily Republican area here in Illinois. This is my highest single day total so far.

    I’ve petitioned heavily Dem areas in the last few weeks, and have received nothing but hard times, blank stares and outright vitriolic hatred. Oh, and I should mention Democrat beauracrats from various governmental offices like the Post Office and the Secretary of State, and Democrat Dick Durbin’s henchmen in a town where he has a great deal of support, trying to stop me from petitioning.

    Republicans are just nicer people and much more open to third party ballot access and competition. Democrats are the enemy of Libertarians and should be treated as such.

  33. Eric Dondero Says:

    Oh, incidentally, where was I when I got those 465 signatures yesterday, along with another TOP Libertarian Party Activist?

    Right in front of the American Legion Hall Tent at a local Ethnic Festival near Chicago.

    Ironic ‘eh? Republicans and Veterans helping to get the Libertarian ticket on the ballot. Kind of flies right in the face of Leftist America-haters like Tom Knapp who want to abolish the Military and spit on them for their Victories in Afghanistan and Iraq.

    But then again, Knapp is not a real Libertarian. He’s a Leftist Daily Kosser/Moveon.org activist who has infilitrated the Libertarian Party to push his Far Leftist America-hating agenda. So, that’s to be expected.

  34. David Tomlin Says:

    I’ve just discovered that Genarlow Wilson is black. I suspected that, but I didn’t take the time to check on it until now.

    Maybe that’s part of the reason for Barr describing Wilson as ‘a not-terribly sympathetic figure’, and counting on his constituency of older Georgians to feel the same way.

    If the son of one of Barr’s rich white friends got an underage blowjob, I think we could almost count on it never seeing the inside of a courtroom or a line of newsprint.

  35. GoNolzOhio Says:

    Dondero,

    I commend you on your petition drive yesterday. However, you really must make a distinction between the actions of rank-and-file republicans (and by that I mean small “r” republicans), and the Republican Party itself. While I can see where “small r” republicans would freely sign the petition, especially considering many are unhappy with McCain, to think the Republican Party itself does nothing to block free and fair elections is silly. The fact that we are in a two-party duopoly is beyond even arguing at this point.

  36. Jonathan Says:

    Thanks Dondero for your petittion drive. You are the man
    We need more people like you and you are right. If you think back to the Ross Perot days, Republicans never use the dirty tactics the Democrats use in blocking ballot access. If you look at the many ugly and illegal tactics the Democrats used on Nader in 2004 to block him, it will raise your hairs, I mean Republicans have never gone that far. In addition, your average registered Republican is more open minded. I have found out the same by my experiences. PLease donate to www.bobbarr2008.com if you can’t donate your time to petition like Dondero. The time is short on ballot access. And ballot access is half the battle.

  37. Kelly Parker Says:

    “How about throwing Georgia to…. Barr?”
    My thoughts exactly. Georgia is a must win state for Barr. That is how he should approach it.

  38. Thomas M. Sipos Says:

    To “Green in Brooklyn” ... as you follow the Green nomination process, I hope you’ll remember to include Robert Milnes.

    I kid you not, Milnes has announced that, after failing to win the LP and the Boston Tea Party nominations, Milnes is now a candidate for the Green Party.

  39. Andy Says:

    “Eric Dondero Says:

    June 21st, 2008 at 5:42 am
    I got 465 signatures yesterday for Barr/Root in a heavily Republican area here in Illinois. This is my highest single day total so far.

    I’ve petitioned heavily Dem areas in the last few weeks, and have received nothing but hard times, blank stares and outright vitriolic hatred. Oh, and I should mention Democrat beauracrats from various governmental offices like the Post Office and the Secretary of State, and Democrat Dick Durbin’s henchmen in a town where he has a great deal of support, trying to stop me from petitioning.

    Republicans are just nicer people and much more open to third party ballot access and competition. Democrats are the enemy of Libertarians and should be treated as such.”

    I’ve gotten 300-400 signatures in one day in heavily Democratic areas. In fact, I did 350 signatures for Libertarian Party ballot access in 5 hours at a festival that was dominated by leftist Democrat types (if I had arrived earlier I probably could have gotten 600-700 plus signatures are the rate that I was getting them). I’ve had many Democrats sign petitions for Libertarian Party ballot access as well as other libertarian causes.

    Yes, it is true that SOME Democrats are assholes and that SOME of them will play dirty tricks to stop people from gathering signatures on libertarian petitions. Believe me, I’ve had my share of run ins with nasty Democrats.

    However, what Eric conviently overlooks - due to his extreme bias - is that there are plenty of asshole Republicans who try to shut down libertarian petitions just as the Democrats do. I’ve had many run ins with nasty Republicans, including some who tried to get me arrested for gathering signatures on pro-liberty petitions!

    It has been my expierence that there are just as many nasty Democrats as there are nasty Republicans. There are also just as many reasonable Democrats as there are reasonable Republicans.

  40. Andy Says:

    “If you look at the many ugly and illegal tactics the Democrats used on Nader in 2004 to block him, it will raise your hairs, I mean Republicans have never gone that far.”

    Oh yeah they have. Here are just a few examples…

    Republicans in Illinois challenged Libertarian Party ballot access petition signatures and got the LP of Illinois kicked off of the ballot.

    Republicans in South Dakota wrote up negative language in the voter booklet to smear the Medicinal Marijuana initiative. MPP filed a lawsuit over this.

    Republicans in South Dakota also opposed the Jail For Judges ( www.Jail4Judges.org ) ballot initiative.

    The former Republican Mayor of Omaha, Nebraska, who is a current realestate mogul, banned people from gathering signatures on a ballot initiative to put Spending Limits on State Government from properties that his company owned that were open to the public, including government offices (such as DMVs; gee, I wonder how it is that he got the leases on several government offices). Also, the Republican governor of Nebraska condemed the Spending Limits initiative.

    A Republican gun show promoter called the cops on me for gathering signatures on a petition to Stop Eminent Domain Abuse and another one to put Spending Limits on State Government at the Tulsa Fairgrounds, which was owned by the city of Tulsa. I tried to explain to the gun show promoter what I was doing (and note that I was outside the arena building and that I was not blocking the door ) and I even offered to purchase a table (note that promoters that are not assholes will generally give you a table if you aren’t selling anything). This guy would hear none of it and just walked away while I was trying to explain the situation to him. I was threatened with arrest if I didn’t leave, so fearing that nobody would back me up, I left.

    A Republican gun show promoter in North Carolina called the police on me for gathering signatures for Libertarian Party ballot access at the Raliegh Fairgrounds. I tried to explain what I was doing and I pulled out a Libertarian Party pro-gun rights flyer to show that Libertarians were trying to protect his right to have gun shows and this guy replied with something like, “I don’t want any of that stuff around here.”

    A Republican gun show promoter in California actually called the police on me for gathering signatures on the petition to Recall Democrat Governor Grey Davis (Seriously! Go figure!). This happened at the Ventura Fairgrounds. Fortunately, California law has good protections for people gathering signatures on petitions so I was able to stay and continue gathering signatures much to the chagrin of the (asshole) gun show promoter.

    I had a HELL of a time being harrassed by Republican prison gaurd (or should I say Correction Officiers as they prefer to be called) THUGS in Florida while working on a petition to give their fellow gaurds/Officiers the right to vote on who their union representation was going to be, or if they were even going to continue to have a union at all. These guys were big supporters of Jeb Bush as well as George W. Bush. They stood around us while we were trying to gather signatures and intimidated people into not signing. They also yelled and cursed and told all kinds of lies (such as that we were going to sell their information to telemarketers). They even went so far as to follow petitioners around in their pick up trucks. Their blocking got so bad that the petition drive ended up being called off.

    I ran into asshole Republicans who gave me shit for gathering signatures for marijuana legalization initiatives in Nevada and Colorado and for Medicinal Marijuana in South Dakota.

    I ran into asshole Republicans who gave me shit for gathering signatures to Legalize Gambling in Nebraska.

    “In addition, your average registered Republican is more open minded. I have found out the same by my experiences.”

    BAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

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