Hope for Texas CD-14

Today is presidential primary day in a few states, but I’m sure a lot of people on this site will be watching a particular congressional district down in Texas.

For weeks, rumors were floating around suggesting that Chris Peden, Ron Paul’s opponent in the Republican primary for Paul’s current congressional seat, was handily defeating the libertarian Republican incumbent in their internal polling.

I was never able to find out if Peden actually had numbers showing a double-digit lead over Paul or if someone just started the rumor. In reality, these reports turned out to be untrue.

Personally, I wish the good Doctor good luck today in his race. Also, I’ll go out on a limb with a prediction: Paul will win 64% of the vote in his congressional district today. I wonder how many of you make an even closer guess.

48 Responses to “Hope for Texas CD-14”

  1. Trent Hill Says:

    I think 68%.

  2. Stephen Gordon Says:

    Trent,

    68% was my original prediction, but I was speaking with people right outside the district line yesterday who said that Peden has been putting up a good fight to the end. I figured that was worth a minor downgrade.

  3. Trent Hill Says:

    I’ll stick with mine—I’d love to see Dondero take a shot. Dondero?

  4. dumbdero Says:

    Ron Paul - 0%
    Penden - 100%

  5. Roscoe Says:

    65.3%.

  6. johncjackson Says:

    59% Ron Paul. I think it will be a little closer than past primaries, but not close to being in danger.

  7. richard Says:

    I think he’ll hit lucky 7. 70%, that is.

  8. Andy Says:

    Whoohoo! Ron Paul is winning! Somewhere Eric Dondero is crying.

  9. disinter Says:

    http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/mar04_135_race4.htm

    after 7:00pm Texas time

  10. Brad Says:

    +70%

  11. Fred C. Says:

    All the good predictions are taken already. I’ll second Roscoe’s, guessing that the last-minute uncertainty around the dem contests is going to draw more republicans to that primary and drive Peden’s support down.

  12. Michael Seebeck Says:

    Well, at last check Paul was up 68-32. I told ABC Paul would win by 30. I’m glad to say I was too low.

  13. Stephen Gordon Says:

    it’s at 68% at 8:12 CST —maybe I should have stuck with my earlier prediction

  14. johncjackson Says:

    Nice. I knew if I predicted lower, he would do much better.

  15. Jeff Wartman Says:

    This shouldn’t be surprising—Paul has been in his district a long time and there is a strong power of incumbency in Congress.

  16. dodsworth Says:

    Erici:

    What say you? The employer you love to hate is getting the last laugh and his winning percentage in November will probably be at least twice as high as McCain’s losing percentage. Life’s a bitch, especially for you today.

  17. johncjackson Says:

    Well obviously the Republicans there in District 14 didnt want a real Republican who actually votes with his party. Also I am sure many Republicans voted for Hillary and many of Ron Paul’s votes were from his fellow liberal Democrats.

  18. Richie Says:

    Where’s Dondero right now? Normally, he’s pretty quick to get the first word in on these posts. Probably hiding under a rock somewhere.

  19. Fred C. Says:

    Aren’t there caucuses after the primary? He’s probably there, accusing RP supporters of being muslim.

  20. Eric Dondero Says:

    Ron Paul is yesterday’s news.

    Big story now is Rezko. If you all haven’t looked into this it’s absolutely stunning! Now there’s a solid connection to Saddam Hussein through Antoin “Tony” Rezko (Syrian, NOT Italian.)

    I’m actually pulling for Obama tonight. I know that sounds insane. But I’m taking the Rush Limbaugh twist one step further. With Rezko breaking Obama will be more vulnerable in the general than the Hill.

    Yes, I am a bit depressed this evening. Hillary seems to be pulling out wins in OH and RI, and very close in Texas.

    If Obama gets it, and Rezko blows up in a week or two, the Dems will be SOL.

    But now with Hill sticking around, that will be less clear.

    Google Rezko!!

  21. Eric Dondero Says:

    As for Peden, I think his campaign manager hit it on the head. Republicans down here have voted in the Dem primary bigtime taking the Rush lead to support Hillary. That killed any chance Peden may have had.

    Still, he improved on Sinatra. I believe she got 26%? (Not sure on this, might have been 28%). He’s pulling 32%? I’d say that sets him up for the Paul seat as the frontrunner in 2010. Unless Bettencourt decided to jump in?

  22. dodsworth Says:

    Eric:

    So now you want McCain to win? I thought you were for a third party. Romney apparently was amateur flip flopper compared to you.

  23. Eric Dondero Says:

    Ouch! CNN is reporting:

    Ron Paul - 4% in Ohio

    Ron Paul - 5% in Texas

    That’s gotta hurt. And now a 3-way race no less. He was getting bigger numbers in an 8-way.

  24. Eric Dondero Says:

    No Dodsworth. I’m wanting Republicans for US Senate and US House to win.

    I want Tom McClintock to be a United States Congressman from California. And if that takes McCain havig a good showing, so be it. I could care less about McCain. He’s a moderate Squish. But if he lifts the GOP ticket, great.

  25. Eric Dondero Says:

    Dodsworth, I’m where I have always been. My picks for US President:

    1. Rudy Giuliani
    2. Mitt Romney
    3. Fred Thompson
    4. Wayne Root

    (Okay, I’m switching a bit. If Barr runs I’ll add him to #5)

  26. Eric Dondero Says:

    BTW, you all will be interesting to know that here in the Texas GOP Primary early voting last week I voted for Voah Tranh for President. He is one of the 10 Republicans on the ballot and is still running. He’s a Vietnamese-American patriot.

  27. disinter Says:

    http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/mar04_135_state.htm

  28. Eric Dondero Says:

    Yup, I was one of those 360 for Tran.

  29. disinter Says:

    Yup, I was one of those 360 for Tran.

    Diebold moved your vote to McKook or Huckatard, more likely.

  30. James Carville Says:

    “I want Tom McClintock to be a United States Congressman from California. And if that takes McCain havig a good showing, so be it. I could care less about McCain. He’s a moderate Squish. But if he lifts the GOP ticket, great.”

    Darn! I planned on supporting McClintock until this. Also, Dondero, you should remember from an earlier topic on third-party watch that even hard-right winger Barry Goldwater got a better electoral showing than moderate squish George H.W. Bush in 1992.

  31. Brian Ewart Says:

    Dondero, I am appalled that we will prob. end up both voting for Root and/or Barr in November, since I disagree with you on everything.

    That said: The only frontrunner for the congressional seat in the Texas 14th is Ron Paul. Until he retires. Like it or not, Ron Paul is firmly entrenched, and deeply respected in the 14th and in surrounding areas.

    Why would a “libertarian” like yourself support Peden anyway? Other than for some silly vendetta against your former employer? Would you really claim that Ron Paul wasn’t the more libertarian of the two candidates?

  32. disinter Says:

    Why would a “libertarian” like yourself support Peden anyway? Other than for some silly vendetta against your former employer? Would you really claim that Ron Paul wasn’t the more libertarian of the two candidates?

    Because he is a neocon shill?

  33. Fred C. Says:

    “BTW, you all will be interesting to know that here in the Texas GOP Primary early voting last week I voted for Voah Tranh for President. He is one of the 10 Republicans on the ballot and is still running. He’s a Vietnamese-American patriot.”

    You mean Hoa Tran? And “She” instead of he? Did you just vote for the wrong person?

    “I want Tom McClintock to be a United States Congressman from California. And if that takes McCain havig a good showing, so be it.”

    I want McClintock to win, but he’s got to do it on his own. Doolittle scraped by on just a 3% advantage last time. This time McClintock’s going to be fighting a massive democrat flood at the polls. I don’t think McCain’s coattails are going to factor in at all.

  34. Fred C. Says:

    Shoot, forgot to close that tag. This Hoa Tran’s also Chinese.

  35. Andy Says:

    “Eric Dondero Says:

    March 4th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
    Dodsworth, I’m where I have always been. My picks for US President:

    1. Rudy Giuliani
    2. Mitt Romney
    3. Fred Thompson
    4. Wayne Root

    (Okay, I’m switching a bit. If Barr runs I’ll add him to #5)”

    I thought that Wayne Root and Bob Barr were supposedly against the war in Iraq. If they are, then why would you support them?

    Wouldn’t John “100 years in Iraq” McCain be more to your liking? Or are you just so superficial that you don’t like him merely because of his age?

  36. Eric Dondero Says:

    McCain is a moderate squish. He’s neither good nor bad. Just blah.

    Root and Barr against the War on Al Qaeda? I’ve seen little if any evidence of that.

    Are you saying that they oppose fighting terrorism and align themselves with Al Qaeda?

  37. Eric Dondero Says:

    I’d remind you that many other libertarians down here in Texas are friendly with Peden, including the Vice-Chair of the Texas LP Kevin Tunstall. Peden is a diehard Property Rights guy. That’s his big issue, and that’s how the Texas LP originally got in touch with him.

    It was Kevin - Stephen Gordon’s close friend - who first told me about Peden. He’d been working with him on some local Property Rights stuff.

    I might be wrong on this, but I think Peden even said some nice things about Bob Smither, and had dinner with him once when he was running for Congress as a Libertarian. They both live in the same town.

  38. Chris Says:

    I might be wrong on this, but I think Peden even said some nice things about Bob Smither, and had dinner with him once when he was running for Congress as a Libertarian. They both live in the same town.

    I know I’m not wrong on this: Penden said some nice things about Ron Paul until he decided to run against him. There are also a lot of libertarians in Texas friendly with Paul. Paul is a diehard property rights guy.

  39. BloodyMaryBreakfast Says:

    The albatross hangs,
    it hangs round Eric’s neck.
    It swings, back and forth,
    bumpity-bump, bumpity bump.

    “Why?” Eric cries.
    “Why won’t you leave me?
    I’ve given you many names,
    I feed you, I nurture you.”

    “Why?” Eric cries.
    “Why can everyone see you,
    except me?”

  40. Ayn R. Key Says:

    Dondero, why are you upset about Hillary beating Obama? Isn’t Hillary a “true libertarian democrat” the same way that McCain is a “true libertarian republican”?

    If it came down to Hillary versus McCain, you get a hawkish neocon either way, and isn’t that what you want neocon Dondero?

  41. Ayn R. Key Says:

    Andy spaketh thus:

    I thought that Wayne Root and Bob Barr were supposedly against the war in Iraq. If they are, then why would you support them?

    Eric spaketh thus:

    Root and Barr against the War on Al Qaeda? I’ve seen little if any evidence of that.

    Are you saying that they oppose fighting terrorism and align themselves with Al Qaeda?

    Your answer is unrelated to the question. The war in Iraq is not the war on Al Qaeda. No wonder self-defense libertarians think pro-war libertarians are full of it.

  42. disinter Says:

    For insight into Dondero’s mentality:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j_R2ogOX58

  43. Eric Dondero Says:

    McCain a “NeoCon”. That is the abolute height of absurdity. I’ve heard it all now.

    Now the anti-NeoCons are stretching the definition of NeoCon to mean Moderate Squishes.

    My Lord. Is there anyone in the entire universe besides Justin Raimondo and Lew Rockwell who are not NeoCons?

  44. Eric Dondero Says:

    The War in Iraq IS ABSOLUTELY 100% COMPLETELY A WAR ON AL QAEDA

    You are a fucking idiot if you believe anything else.

    ZARCAWI WAS IN IRAQ AS EARLY AS 2001!!

    SADDAM HUSSEIN HARBORED TWO TERRORIST TRAINING CAMPS - SALMAN PAC AND ANSAR AL-ISLAM. (The Latter was the Al Qaeda arm for Iraq. The former hosted Al Qaeda terrorists as early as 1999.)

    Today there is virtually NO Iraqi insurgence outside of Al Qaeda operatives. All formerly Iraq insurgents, mostly Sunnis have completely turned on Al Qaeda.

    If you do not support the War in Iraq, you are essentially aligning yourself with our enemies - Al Qaeda, and Osama bin Laden.

  45. Andy Says:

    “If you do not support the War in Iraq, you are essentially aligning yourself with our enemies - Al Qaeda, and Osama bin Laden.”

    This is like saying, if you don’t support going to war with China then you must support communism.

    Your line of “reasoning” is completely absurd.

  46. Andy Says:

    “Eric Dondero Says:

    March 5th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
    McCain a ‘NeoCon’. That is the abolute height of absurdity. I’ve heard it all now.

    Now the anti-NeoCons are stretching the definition of NeoCon to mean Moderate Squishes.”

    Well let’s see.

    McCain supports the so called “War on Terror” and even advocates keeping US troops in Iraq for 100 years.

    McCain supports all of the domestic police state measures that have been enacted because of the so called “War on Terror,” such as the Patriot Act, Homeland Security, etc…

    McCain is unabashedly pro-Israel.

    Yep, McCain sure sounds like a neo-con to me.

  47. Andy Says:

    “Eric Dondero Says:

    March 4th, 2008 at 11:20 pm

    I want Tom McClintock to be a United States Congressman from California.

    I voted for Tom McClintock for Governor in 2003 and for Lt. Governor in 2006. Why did I vote for him? Because McClintock had a pretty good record in the state legislature and the Libertarian Party did not have good candidates in those races (especially the one in 2003).

    I’m not so excited about him running for Congress though. Why? Because he did not endorse Ron Paul for President and instead endorsed Fred Thompson. This is just inexcusable in my opinion. It tells me that while McClintock is good on some issues he is probably another Republitarian warmonger.

  48. Ayn R. Key Says:

    Eric Dondro tantrumed thus:

    The War in Iraq IS ABSOLUTELY 100% COMPLETELY A WAR ON AL QAEDA

    You are a fucking idiot if you believe anything else.

    Sure, and Guiliani and yourself are both libertarians, and I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

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