Iowa Caucus Results Open Thread

I’ll be at a political event tonight but I’m sure many of you will be discussing Iowa caucus results, so I thought this open thread might be helpful. Also, I’ll get the comments by e-mail on my cell phone, so I’ll have something to occupy my mind should the meeting be less than exciting at times. If there are any interesting media reports or updates, please feel free to leave an update in the comment section so I can be kept up-to-date. :)

BTW: Here are my predictions (along with many of yours), but I’m not too confident about mine at the moment:

I’ll go out on a limb and make my best guesses. For the Republicans, it will be Huckabee in first and Romney in second. The guessing is tougher with the rest of the GOP field, and I’m expecting to see Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain clustered somewhat tightly. Let’s try this order: McCain, Giuliani, Paul, Thompson. The lower the turnout, the better it will be for Paul and the worst it will be for Giuliani. However, the weather is predicted to be rather nice for Iowa. If the turnout is really low, it could even go Paul, McCain, Thompson, Giuliani for the second tier of Republicans.

The Democratic side is tougher and I expect it to be tight. For the first round, I’ll go with this order: Obama, Edwards, Clinton.

94 Responses to “Iowa Caucus Results Open Thread”

  1. DenisL Says:

    Looks like we will know soon enough about the votes in Iowa. I would bet that Ron Paul will get at least 15-20% and at least enough for third, maybe second.

    Huckabee is a silver tongued devil who knows what to say AND people are looking for someone to believe in who sounds Presidential. He says he wants to eliminate the IRS, which sounds a little like Ron Paul. The problem is Huckabee’s record. And the same with Romney. Who knows what they will really do if elected? With Ron Paul you know EXACTLY what he will try to do. Save the economy and save the country. Paul knows how. But more people in Iowa who the polls say are likely to vote now believe Huckabee.

    My own numbers are simply reasoned from this: Zogby says that Ron Paul will get 10% of the votes based on his polling which is tied with a bunch of others. ~100,000 people will be voting in the Republican primary so 10,000 votes. ~200,000 in the Democratic primary. The population of Iowa is 3 million. Half are adults so 1.5 million. (10%+ are libertarians - 1% always voted that way in the past. That is 15,000 people or your base vote.

    2/3 of Americans hate the Iraq war. That is higher in Iowa. 1/3 of Republicans hate the war. The war is a big deal. Only Ron Paul or Kucinich really oppose the war.

    People lie to OR avoid pollsters OR they have cell phones. I know I do. Ron Paul supporters are very motivated and very concerned about the impending collapse of the economy from the policies of the status quo. This includes the nasty and idiotic Iraq war which is bankrupting us.

    This is it folks. It is now or never for this generation. People in America, who can think, AND even though most choose not to, MUST recognize their need to vote tonight for a doctor and Congressman from Texas who knows how to save the country.

    If you are a Ron Paul supporter you will vote even though there is a 9 degree wind-chill index tonight at 7pm. And the entire world says that your candidate will not win. You know he is your only chance to save the Republic. It is time. They know it and they will vote. So I am dreaming of 20%. We shall see.

    Hopefully, that will wake up the MSM who will really start smearing Ron Paul then. Up to now they have just been playing. MSM smearing will help in an internet age. All smears can be challenged quickly. Ron Paul will be in all the debates or the MSM will look silly once he starts doing better than the other “top tier” candidates in real voting.

    We shall see in a few hours if the dream is a reality.

  2. DenisL Says:

    As for the Democrats.
    I make it Obama, Clinton and then Edwards.
    But who really cares.
    There is not a dime’s worth of difference among them.

  3. liberal blue Says:

    I bet Paul and Kucinich will do a lot better than expected. Edwards has been exposed as a fraud, bought and paid for with corporate money. I think that will give a boost to Obama, Clinton and Kucinich.

  4. Eric Dondero Says:

    You’ll see a lot of Giuliani supporters moving over to Romney for Iowa to head off Huckabee.

    There’s a lot of overlap between Giuliani and Romney. Their campaign teams have been friendly lately. And they both occupy that Economic Conservative mantle.

    If Romney wins tonight, libertarian Republicans can be happy. If Huckabee and the Religious Right fanatics win, it will be a very sad night indeed.

  5. Jason Says:

    Early reports have Huckabee and Romney fighting for first as well as Obama and Clinton fighting for first.

  6. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Kucinich will not surprise anyone…. the rules for Democrats will make it very hard for him to pick up more than token support.

  7. Jason Says:

    10% of Precincts Reported:

    Thompson and Huckabee tied with 32%

    McCain leading with 34%???

    Where is Romney??—————————————————————————-

    Edwards 34%
    Clinton 32%
    Obama 31%

  8. Rob Kelly Says:

    Date: Jan 3, 2008 6:35 PM
    Body:————————- Bulletin Message————————-
    From: Blue♥Sky♥Sunshine [RON PAUL ‘08]
    Date: Jan 3, 2008 5:39 PM

    From: Μολών Λaβέ

    From: USA Forever 4 Ron Paul

    From: GunOwners4Paul
    Date: Jan 3, 2008 3:11 PM

    either through


  9. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Jason, those Politico numbers are all goofed up.

    CNN is showing….

    Huckabee - 33%
    Romney - 24%
    Thompson - 17%
    McCain - 11%

    No numbers for the rest. I saw a few counties that had big Paul results… into the teens in a couple places. But others where he was below 5%. It’s still waaaaay too early.

  10. Jason Says:

    yeah, i figured that out just now…should have held off when I saw McCain numbers…

  11. Austin Cassidy Says:

    That and zero votes for Mitt Romney. :)

  12. Jason Says:

    Ok, looks like Politico fixed the glitch. This is going to be interesting…Paul is climbing on McCain and I think Thompson will crack 20%

  13. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Paul might very well take fourth… maybe even third. But it all depends on where these results are coming from, and we just have no idea yet.

    Very interesting so far… and I’m quite happy to see Mr. Romney’s campaign coming to an end. :)

  14. Jason Says:

    They are saying Huck as won it. I guess that means it’s in the bag for Huck and Chuck.

    Please Thompson beat Romney…and Paul please beat McCain!

  15. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Romney must be embarrassed.

  16. Jason Says:

    he should be! He tried to pull out all the stops…he reminds me of a drunk groping date. A typical car salesman.

    Romney has lost a lot of air…I don’t see NH being a safe haven after all.

  17. Jason Says:

    Nothing is being decided on the Democrats…While what a race going on over there.

  18. Jacob Katzenberg Says:

    Politico has county by county results on mouseover.

  19. Jason Says:

    I really want to call this a soft win for Huckabee. He will have more of a challenge in other states.

  20. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Giuliani is starting to pick up some surprising support. Hmmm… it’s a tight pack in the hunt for third place right now. With Thompson, Giuliani, McCain, and Paul all in it.

  21. Jason Says:

    Yeah, it’s looking like a shark tank in the middle. I didn’t see Giuliani coming up like this. Thompson, has to be disappointed with these numbers. I know I am. He still has support though.

  22. Jason Says:

    Well, Obama gets the nod…Wow

  23. Austin Cassidy Says:

    If Thompson slips behind McCain, I think he might drop out and endorse McCain before New Hampshire. Giuliani’s numbers appeared to be a mistaken spike… he’s back down to 4%.

  24. Doug Craig Says:

    I think if Paul finishes above 10% it will be great. he a link for results

  25. Bill Wood Says:


    President - GOP Caucus
    1160 of 1781 Precincts Reporting - 65%

    Name Party Votes Vote %
    Huckabee, Mike GOP 25,510 34%
    Romney, Mitt GOP 18,668 25%
    Thompson, Fred GOP 10,308 14%
    McCain, John GOP 9,891 13%
    Paul, Ron GOP 7,674 10%
    Giuliani, Rudy GOP 2,708 4%
    Hunter, Duncan GOP 324 0%
    Tancredo, Tom GOP 2 0%

  26. Eric Dondero Says:

    I think the low bar for Ron Paul is more like 12 or 13% and 3rd or 4th place.

    If he doesn’t beat McCain or Thompson and at least place 4th, he’s had a bad night.

  27. G.E. Says:

    I’m totally demoralized right now. I can only hope that the remaining third of precincts are rural (which is why they’re late) and more prone to support Paul. He needs a better finish than 5th; a better finish than the polls predicted.

  28. Trent Hill Says:

    With 67% reporting, the only thing is contention is third place.

    With Fred Thompson leading McCain by 400 votes and McCain leading Paul by 1200 votes.

  29. Eric Dondero Says:

    Giuliani did spike, but it apparently was from Cedar Rapids, where it’s more Moderate Republican. That’s where Jim Nussle is from.

    Good indication that in future Moderate GOP states like New Jersey, Conn., Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Texas, Florida and California, he should do quite well.

  30. Trent Hill Says:


    Rural states wont go more for Paul. Urban cities will,thats where all the activity has been.

  31. Eric Dondero Says:

    G.E. I agree. Your guy Ron Paul needs better than 5th place to justify him being included in the debates in New Hampshire, and SC.

    But hey, there’s always the Constitution Party. My bet, is Paul goes that direction. He’ll blame his exclusion from the debates and “vote rigging” by evil Republicans conspiring against him.

  32. Doug Craig Says:

    if Paul is having a bad night. What is Rudy having. Rudy is on his way out.NH will be worse for Rudy and better for Paul.

  33. Thomas L. Knapp Says:

    I think the Giuliani “surge” was a glitch. One county briefly reported him with 3,000+ votes, then that was corrected (he doesn’t have 3,000 votes in the whole STATE with 65% of precincts reporting).

    Mistuh Giuliani, he dead—figuratively speaking, of course. He was counting on faring poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire and then making his big push in Florida, but he wasn’t counting on coming in next to LAST in Iowa, or on being in Duncan Hunter territory as one of only two candidates in low single digits. Floridians might wait for him if he was in 3rd or 4th place and at 10-15% in Iowa. but he’s at more like 3%. He’s officially a bottom-tier candidate at the worst possible time to be a bottom-tier candidate. He’s done.

    Paul, on the other hand, may be able to generate momentum if he stays above 10%. I still don’t see him getting anywhere close to the nomination, but his diehards will remain energized and a lot of those loose voters who had assumed this thing was in the bag for Romney or Thompson and didn’t really care may take a fresh look.

  34. ElfNinosMom Says:

    Eric Dondero: I’m still waiting for your answer to my question in the spoof thread.

  35. Eric Dondero Says:

    Of Course, Knapp is completely wrong in his analysis.

    Look at the County by County in Iowa. Giuliani did well in urban areas, and especially in Eastern Iowa, which is more Moderate Republican country.

    I’d say this is encouraging for Rudy. Means that he’s set for good showings in Moderate GOP states like Conn., Oregon, Washington, California, Texas, Florida and New Jersey.

    Knapp wants to pretend that Moderate Republicans and Pro-Choice Republicans dont’ exist.

    My question for Knapp would be, do you really think that the Mods and the Pro-Choicers in the GOP could ever back a guy like Huckabee?

    If Rudy doesn’t get the GOP nomination, they might even draft him as a 3rd party candidate.

    There are already rumblings to that affect. And Rudy has a past with third party efforts.

  36. Kevin L. Perrin Says:

    Obama and Hillary will be tied again after New Hampshire

  37. Eric Dondero Says:

    Doug, Ron Paul contested Iowa, Rudy Giuliani clearly did not.

    Even Duncan Hunter contested Iowa. Rudy was the only one to explicitly say that during the Iowa Caucuses he’d be campaigning in NH and Florida.

    Again, Rudy did okay in some Eastern Iowa Moderate GOP Counties.

    Get Rudy away from Religious Right strongholds, and he does fine.

  38. Eric Dondero Says:

    Moment of honesty from you Ron Paul folks here.

    How do you really feel?

    Are you all satisfied with the results?

    I’m hearing mixed signals from the Paulists on other Blogs.

  39. Doug Craig Says:


    I think Rudy is going to struggle in the deep south including north Florida. I have not seen One Rudy sign In Georgia. I just recieved a truckload (16 foot flat bed) of supplies for Ron Paul to send out to the forces in Atlanta.Paul will only get stronger will Rudy will struggle

  40. Doug Craig Says:


    I think Rudy is going to struggle in the deep south including north Florida. I have not seen One Rudy sign In Georgia. I just recieved a truckload (16 foot flat bed) of supplies for Ron Paul to send out to the forces in Atlanta.Paul will only get stronger will Rudy will struggle

  41. Austin Cassidy Says:

    If McCain steals third place from Thompson…. Thompson will drop out and endorse McCain.

    And ultimately, McCain will win the nomination.

    Romney is fatally wounded and Giuliani is going to be out of it before we even get to a state he’s competitive in.

  42. Doug Craig Says:


    I am not sure how it feels but I do know one thing it feels alot better than 4% ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

  43. Jason C Says:

    Thompson is not dropping out, apparently there is an email from his camp stating just that. He is going to NH to debate and he is moving to SC.

    I’m surprised by the Thompson and Paul Numbers. I really though Thompson would have been more like 18-20% and Paul 10-13%, possibly beating McCain.

  44. Austin Cassidy Says:

    We’ll see. If Thompson falls to fourth place… he might not keep going.

  45. Jason C Says:

    Personally though, if Thompson can’t secure third….But! he is a Southerner and still has a puncher’s chance against Huckabee in the South.

  46. Stephen Gordon Says:

    Just got back home and with 78% of the totals in, it looks like a few friends will owe me some drinks.

    Sitting at 100% with my Dem projection and right now it looks like I’ve inverted Giuliani and Thompson with the lower tier Repubs. Must be the Dondero influence on the Giuliana flubup.

  47. Stephen Gordon Says:


    I’ve only seen one Thompson bumper sticker in the entire SE —in the middle of his home turf in Tennessee. We trashed Thompson early on (I’m from his hometown) on the Second Amendment and he never even seemed to catch in the deep south.

  48. Jacob Katzenberg Says:

    ABC News criteria

    To participate in ABC’s Saturday night debate, Republican and Democratic candidates must meet at least one of three benchmarks: place first through fourth in Iowa, poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major New Hampshire surveys, or poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major national surveys.

    has Ron paul polled 5% or higher in one of the last four major New Hampshire surveys, or the last four major national surveys?

  49. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Yes… he’s above 5% in New Hampshire and he’ll probably be invited to the debate.

  50. Jason C Says:

    I’ll catch the rest tomorrow….

    Let me throw this out there: Thompson and Paul both were big disapointments. Thompson spent two weeks and a million dollars in Iowa. He pounded the ground and hit just about every spot that mattered. His message for whatever reason just isn’t finding presidential support. He went all or nothing to show his credentials to the voters of Iowa and McCain who basically none nothing more than wave at a few folks and is now neck and neck with Thompson.

    Paul has raised 20 million dollars in the last 4-months and has an historical following and can only grab 10%? Folks may start asking for refunds…He should have been way more aggressive and used that money.

  51. Doug Craig Says:


    I think people will be happy with 10%,We all would have liked more but you bet Rudy and you are only slightly behind Mccain ad fred. Lets see how NH goes.
    Does anyone know what Paul spent in Iowa? How about a total for each candidate?

  52. Austin Cassidy Says:

    The spending comparison probably wouldn’t be too favorable for Ron Paul. Huckabee spent very little and McCain spent almost nothing.

    Looks like Chris Dodd is out of it now.

  53. Stephen Gordon Says:

    Whassup with Jefferson County? 0 % GOP reporting and one of Ron Paul’s potential strongholds.

  54. Deran Says:

    I think Dennis Kucinich’s pre-Caucus uring of his supporters to vote Obama as thei second choice, and coming out and saying it publicallyin advance of the caucusing is just like his Kerry endorsement in 2004.

    Kucinich makes noises abt being a champion for progressive values and politics, but when it comes to vote; he’s always in their cheering for the Democratic Party.

    I think his dismal dismal showing in Iowa is the end of the Kucinich falderal.

  55. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Hey, did ANYONE at all vote for Alan Keyes? :)

  56. Jacob Katzenberg Says:

    From Andrew Sullivan:

    “The Independents

    They went for Obama and … Ron Paul respectively. Among independents, Clinton came a poor third: 17 percent to Obama’s 41. And McCain lost out to Paul: 23 percent to 29. The men with the most support among independents - the people you need to win a general election - are the most despised by the Republican base. In they end, the Republicans poisoned themselves. Maybe they’ll begin to recognize how far they’ve fallen.”

    Independents Choose Dr. Paul in Iowa 1st place with 29%

  57. Sean Scallon Says:

    Thompson’s numbers are a suprise and I suspect his last minute bus tour probably did the trick. He’ll head to South Carolin now, where it is much warmer, much more to his liking.

    Hopefully Thompson will finish ahead of McCain so he can’t claim a top three place. It should be pointed out Paul did the best out of all the GOP candidates among independents. The only problem, there just wasn’t a lot of them (only 14% of GOP caucus goers).

    As for Paul, well it wasn’t what was hoped for, but there it is. Over 10,000 votes. Much like the straw poll, a nice effort but too little, too late. You can’t spend just 19 days in Iowa and expect people to vote for you in caucus, especially hard core caucus goers. But life goes on. Hopefully he can finish in top three in Wyoming and New Hampshire, maybe even win Nevada if Romey implodes before then. But whatever happens, he owes it to his nationwide supporters to compete in every primary and caucus and see what he can get out of and hopefully it will be enough to being the process of reinventing the GOP.

    But one thing Paul did do, and that’s kick the crap out of Rudy Guliani. There’s nothing Mr. Rittberg can say otherwis.

  58. Stephen Gordon Says:


    I’m sure Keyes probably voted for Keyes. I understand it’s pretty easy to establish residency for caucus purposes in Iowa. :)

  59. Stephen Gordon Says:


    You could have at least quoted me on that topic, as opposed to Sullivan.

    BRB, looks like they just tagged that site at Lew Rockwell.

  60. Fred C. Says:

    Does anyone know if the remaining precincts are large ones that are going to take a while to report or just stragglers?

  61. Rob Kelly Says:


    I would have, but I just saw it now. Whereas I was updating myspace bulletins and it came in through there.

  62. Jacob Katzenberg Says:


    My roommate was still logged in on this computer, that was me.

  63. Stephen Gordon Says:


    I was just joking. I tend to get a weird sense of humor on election nights.

  64. Stephen Gordon Says:

    Back to my previous question, looks like Paul was the big winner in Jefferson County.

  65. Andy Says:

    “Eric Dondero Says:

    January 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
    G.E. I agree. Your guy Ron Paul needs better than 5th place to justify him being included in the debates in New Hampshire, and SC.”

    Since Giuliani came in last place - behind Ron Paul - going by your reasoning Giuliani should not be included in the debates.

  66. Jacob Katzenberg Says:

    They currently hace Ron Paul listed with 35.52% in Jeffco, 100% of the vote in that county counted, 93% statewide and Ron Paul is back (barely) in double digits.

  67. Preston Says:

    Deran—Kucinich actually endorsed Edwards in ‘04—but I agree, I think Obama got a lot of that second choice support. That would explain why his victory was more decisive than the polls made it seem.
    The only thing I don’t understand is why Kucinich backed Obama over Edwards? Maybe it was the attempted eliminating him from the debates thing—but still, Obama is a centrist, Edwards is a liberal democrat. He is like the sane version of Kucinich. It would be silly if Kucinich backed Obama over Edwards for a stupid personal reason like that.

  68. Jacob Katzenberg Says:

    Wonder why the Democrats got all their votes counted faster?

  69. Stephen Gordon Says:

    Oops! Thompson just popped out a couple of hundred votes ahead of McCain. My almost close to perfect prediction is now off by the width of 273 hairs. 95% reported at this point.

  70. Fred C. Says:

    Austin’s question still hasn’t been answered, I haven’t found any Keyes totals anywhere.

  71. Jacob Katzenberg Says:

    Most likely they considered him below the threshold of reportability?

    I haven’t seen Hugh Cort’s numbers either.

  72. Thomas L. Knapp Says:


    You can spin it any way you like—Giuliani got his head handed to him.

    Lots of surprises last night:

    - I was surprised that substanceless puffball Fred Thompson did so well, since Romney had had so much time and so much money to corner the substanceless puffball market.
    - I was surprised that Paul didn’t do better than he did. I figured him for closer to 15%, and he seems to be stuck just below 10%.
    - The biggest surprise for me was John McCain. I’ve been predicting since last summer that he will be the GOP nominee (the pundits started catching up with me on that one oh, last week or so), but I didn’t expect him to do nearly this well in friggin’ Iowa, a state he has gone out of his way to not do well in two presidential campaigns in a row now. He’s against their ethanol welfare. He sits out their early fall straw poll. He sneers at their “first in the country” status. And yet he’s statistically tied for third place there.

    Like I said, Giuliani is toast. He was counting on Florida to pull him out of treading water early on, but instead he’s already drowning. By the time Florida votes, the old people down there will be saying “Rudy who?” and thinking that their co-senior-citizen, John McCain, looks pretty damn good after a much better than expected finish in Iowa, 1st or 2nd place in New Hampshire, a hands-down win in Michigan, and strong top-three finishes in South Carolina and Nevada, NONE of which Giuliani will win or take second place in.

    As of last October, I was predicting that McCain would come out of Super Duper Tuesday with ~800 delegates in hand (of the ~1200 needed for an outright majority on the first convention ballot). Now I won’t be surprised if he actually has that majority in pocket by February 6th. I’m beginning to wonder if Giuliani will even be able to show credibly in what I had classified as his two “gimme” states (New York and New Jersey).

  73. Eric Dondero Says:

    Well Tom, if the Fiscal Con Trio of Romney, Rudy and Fred loses out to Mike Huckabee, there’s always the Libertarian Party.


    Nominate Wayne Root, someone all libertarians can support, and someone whom Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani supporters could be persuaded to support.

    They wouldn’t support a Phillies or Kubby in a million years.

    You all have a great opportunity here. Don’t screw it up.

  74. Eric Dondero Says:

    Both Biden and Chris Dodd have officially backed out of the race this morning.

  75. Jason C Says:

    Fred Thompson wins Wyoming Saturday. There is already some buzz that he is leading Romney but both are projected to do well.

  76. Jason C Says:

    To add, it has more delegates than NH. It’s just a shame they scheduled so bunched up between Iowa and NH. It would have been interesting to see the kind of campaigning the Wyoming folks got.

  77. Tess Says:

    Eric Dude:

    The only one that really lost big last night was Mr. 911/Giuliani, he got a whopping 4 %, now that is something for him to blowback on, I think Ron Paul schooled him on that one, LOL…..

  78. Jason C Says:

    GEEZ enough…Ron Paul is a non-factor. He cannot and never was going to win the nominaton for several reasons. Most importanly, he reallys isn’t a danger to any Republican candidate, he may be more so to Dems (I know some of you are saying he hurts McCain in NH…O the variables, who really knows. The last I checked Romney was hurting McCain in NH).

    Ron Paul is energizing folks, bringing in new folks that may otherwise continue to tune out politics, and that is wonderful of him. He is raises important issues and makes people aware of the state of our government and country. Good for him. People still want a choice not a disatrous Barry Goldwater result.

    His national numbers are proving that he is a non-factor in this. I think last night would have shown us if his R[evol]ution is for real or not. It didn’t. He finished at a predictable and respectable 10%.

  79. Thomas L. Knapp Says:


    You write:

    “Nominate Wayne Root, someone all libertarians can support”

    I suppose it’s possible that some libertarians might be able to support Root. I can’t—or at least I won’t—for the same reason I don’t support Paul: If I wanted to support a Republican, I’d become a Republican.


  80. Tom Blanton Says:

    Libertarians that supported Joe Lieberman will be all over Root like flies on shit when they know that Root sent Lieberman $1,000 in October 2006

    Root could have some problems though if the LNC recruits Giuliani after Huckabee wins the GOP nomination.

    Maybe Milnes and Milsted can get together and work up the numbers on a RG/RP-LP vs WAR/RP-RLC-LP scenario. Maybe if you add 2/3 of the top left quadrant with the lower 17% of the Authoritarian quadrant, then divide by 22% minus a reliable 3%, then multiple by zero it will all add up.

  81. rj Says:

    “Moment of honesty from you Ron Paul folks here.

    How do you really feel?

    Are you all satisfied with the results?”

    I tried to keep my hopes in check. The fact I care about third party politics at all and post on a website called “Third Party Watch” shows I’m a bit of a romantic, I understand that, and so always hope more than usually occurs.

    He got around the percentage I thought he’d get. I was expecting 4th behind McCain mainly cause I thought Thompson would do worse than he did (Romney and Giuliani had lower vote counts than I was expecting as well, which of course means those votes have to go somewhere).

    I’m glad Rudy got destroyed, even if he wasn’t campaigning (Miami…good luck with that). I’m not glad that a populist won Iowa, but what can you do? However I said elsewhere that when you take the two candidates of the six that got support last night that were least acceptable to the GOP party establishment, between them combined they got 44%. That’s a huge number for a party that doesn’t have pure elections usually and are more managed from the top down.

    New Hampshire is going to be interesting to watch for Huckabee’s support. He’s a terrible fit for the state. A WaPo editor last night said that based on entrance polling, 60% were evangelicals and Huckabee got half of them, which is 30% out of everybody. Huckabee got 34% of the total vote. So only 10% of the people that were not evangelical supported him.

    The Republicans are in a lot of trouble. Look at these numbers: Democrats had 239,000 show up last night. The Republicans had 114,000. This is a 50/50 state in the general election people. The Republicans better pray Hillary Clinton pulls off a comeback.

  82. jre Says:

    With RP @ 10% of the real GOP vote, that could spell trouble for the republicans. I look for the repugs. to actually manuever to keep RP in the race all the way to the convention. Thus, he cannot run 3rd party and take up to 20% of their base in the national election. On the other hand, according to the turnout #’s in the previous post the repugs may be in trouble anyway.

  83. Andy Says:

    Right now it looks like Eric Dondero’s nightmare scenario could come true. That is Mike Huckabee as the Republican nominee, Barrack Obama as the nominee for the Democrats, and Ron Paul as the Libertarian nominee.

    Eric, what would you do in this situation?

  84. rj Says:

    ^ Ron Paul will not be the LP nominee.

  85. Fred C. Says:

    Britney Spears has obviously taken the caucus results pretty hard.

  86. Deran Says:

    “Britney Spears has obviously taken the caucus results pretty hard.”

    LOL. Based on Ms. Spears’ actions last night, I’m guessing she was a Giuliani supporter!

  87. Jacon Katzenberg Says:

    Ron Paul’s 10% might be a major disappointment to many here, but it’s
    a huge finish as far as many in the old media are concerned.

    Even Fox News’ own talking heads think decision to exclude from presidential forum should be reversed.

    Ron Paul’s double digit support in Iowa has shocked establishment media figures who have long derided the Congressman as an insignificant candidate with just 2 or 3 per cent of the vote. Even Fox News’ own talking heads now agree that Paul should not be excluded from the upcoming presidential forum as campaign momentum builds.

    Dr. Paul blew “national frontrunner” Rudy Giuliani out of the water, who got just 4% of the vote, and is handily placed behind McCain and Thompson heading into New Hampshire.

    The Congressman’s strong showing has led to new calls for Fox News to reverse the decision to exclude him from the January 6th presidential forum, not from Ron Paul supporters but from Fox News’ own flagship hosts.

    “Ten per cent is not insignificant - that’s a huge number,” said Fox’s Greta van Susteren, appearing with host Shep Smith last night. Smith noted that Paul had more than doubled Giuliani’s total.

    “Should Fox News reconsider?” asked Smith, to which Susteren responded, “I’m not sure why he’s out of it (the forum).”

    “Here you have a candidate that 10 per cent of the people caucused in his party really want him and it’s not like he’s an insignificant player,” she added.

    “He didn’t just drop in yesterday to the process, he has been running for president for a long time, and certainly many of the issues he’s raised are rather provocative and certainly stimulate the debate, that’s not a bad thing - and why not pull up another chair?” Susteren concluded.

    CNN’s Wolf Blitzer and Larry King also noted Paul’s double digit finish during a discussion last night.

    “Ron Paul I think is gonna be a factor in New Hampshire on the Republican side much more than he was in Iowa given all the Independents there so let’s not neglect Ron Paul when we’re talking about this,” remarked Blitzer.

  88. Jacon Katzenberg Says:

    Has The Ron Paul Effect Sunk Rudy & Hillary?
    The power of the Revolution threatens to bury Neo-Con darlings Clinton and Giuliani

    Paul Joseph Watson
    Prison Planet
    Friday, January 4, 2008

    Ron Paul supporters have mixed views on whether the Congressman’s 10% showing was a success or not, but the larger issue in the aftermath of the Iowa caucus has to be the question of whether the Ron Paul effect has sunk the presidential aspirations of the top two Neo-Cons in the race - Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton.

    The polling had Giuliani in the mid-teens in Iowa right up until last week but he ended up with a paltry 4% - meanwhile Congressman Paul was polling at around 6% but ended up with 10%. Which candidate took away Giuliani’s support? Huckabee’s success only explains part of it because the strong religious right support for him in Iowa has been there all along.

    It can be argued that both Ron Paul’s masterful schooling of Giuliani during the debates and his success in dividing voters has effectively torpedoed the former New York Mayor’s campaign.

    It is now common knowledge that Giuliani is completely broke despite the fact that he hardly spent any money in Iowa. It will be virtually impossible for him to regain any momentum, and it’s largely thanks to Ron Paul.

    The Neo-Cons would have loved to insert another Bush clone into the White House and carry on the imperial looting of the world while America collapses and decays under the weight of its own decadence but thanks to the Ron Paul effect it’s not going to happen.

    Their only other option was to run a dead horse against another arch Neo-Con, Hillary Clinton, but that too is on the skids.

    Obama and Edwards’ anti-war rhetoric has reached fever pitch and it’s no coincidence that they turned up the volume after noting the exponential popularity of Ron Paul’s meteoric rise after his anti-establishment, anti-war message catapulted him to the coattails of the Republican frontrunners.

    The fact that Obama and Edwards saw off Clinton in what many judged to be a surprise result just shows how hurtful Clinton’s pro-war Neo-Con sympathetic record has been to her.

    We’re not for a moment suggesting that CFR Obama or Bilderberg Edwards offer any kind of hope for America, they are establishment lackeys like all the rest, but the numbers clearly indicate the devastating blow the Ron Paul effect has dealt to the Neo-Cons’ preferred candidates, Clinton and Giuliani.

    Now that the Ron Paul Revolution has slapped the so-called “national frontrunners” upside the head it’s necessary to take this one step further and ask the question, can Paulism go the whole hog and bury Neo-Conservatism for good?

  89. Jacon Katzenberg Says:

    When the article I posted above says Julie Annie is broke they must mean his campaign. As far as I know he is still a multi-millionaire.

    I doubt he’s going to want to blow a big chunk of that on his campaign, though, especially if he’s not getting much in the way of contributions elsewhere.

  90. Jacon Katzenberg Says:

    GOP contender John McCain, who about tied for third among Republicans in Iowa, had something quite startling to say about Iraq while campaigning in New Hampshire today. He interrupted someone recalling that President Bush envisions U.S. forces in Iraq for 50 more years with, “Maybe a hundred [years].” He continued, “That’s fine with me, I hope that would be fine with you, if we maintain a presence in a very volatile part of the world where al-Qaeda is training and equipping and recruiting and motivating people every single day.” “Independent Democrat” Sen. Joe Lieberman was standing behind him.

  91. Jacon Katzenberg Says:

    Another bulletin.

    I notice, though, that they don’t use the same baseline year so it may be an apples to oranges comparison.


    2004- George W. Bush* (unopposed)
    2000- George W. Bush* (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%)
    1996- Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%),
    1992- George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
    1988- Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%),
    1984- Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)
    1980- George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan* (30%),
    1976- Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan

    Iowa is 3/5 on the nomination process when you extract an unopposed Republican candidate. (correct 60% of the time)

    Iowa is 1/5 in selecting the republican winner that wins the white house when you extract the unopposed candidates. (Correct 20% of the time)

    End result: Iowa Republicans are correct 80% of the time at selecting the loser in the General election.*****

    January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%)
    January 24, 2000 - Al Gore (63%), Bill Bradley (37%)
    February 12, 1996 - Bill Clinton* (unopposed)
    February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%), “Uncommitted” (12%)
    February 8, 1988 - Richard Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%)
    February 20, 1984 - Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%)
    January 21, 1980 - Jimmy Carter (59%), Ted Kennedy (31%)
    January 19, 1976 - “Uncommitted” (37%), Jimmy Carter* (28%) Birch Bayh (13%)
    January 24, 1972 - “Uncommitted” (36%) and Edmund Muskie (36%)


    Iowa is 5/8 on the nomination process when you extract an unopposed Democratic candidate. (correct 63% of the time)

    Iowa is 0/8 in selecting the democrat winner that wins the white house when you extract the unopposed candidates. (Correct 0% of the time or Incorrect 100% of the time)

    New Hampshire:


    January 27, 2004: President George W. Bush (no serious opposition)
    February 1, 2000: Senator John McCain defeated Governor George W. Bush,
    February 20, 1996: Pat Buchanan defeated Senator Bob Dole
    February 18, 1992: President George H. W. Bush defeated Patrick J. “Pat” Buchanan
    February 16, 1988: Vice President George H. W. Bush defeated Senator Bob Dole,
    February 28, 1984: President Ronald Reagan (no serious opposition)
    February 26, 1980: Governor Ronald Reagan defeated Ambassador George H. W. Bush,
    February 24, 1976: President Gerald R. Ford defeated Governor Ronald Reagan
    March 7, 1972: President Richard Nixon defeated Congressman Paul N. “Pete” McCloskey, Jr.
    March 12, 1968: Vice President Richard M. Nixon defeated Governor George Romney
    March 10, 1964: Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. defeated Senator Barry M. Goldwater,
    March 8, 1960: Vice President Richard Nixon (no serious opposition)
    March 13, 1956: President Dwight D. Eisenhower (no serious opposition)
    March 11, 1952: General Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated Senator Robert Taft


    -New Hampshire is correct 7/10 times in selecting the nominee for the Republicans when there is no opposition. (70% correct)

    -New Hampshire is correct 5/10 times in selecting the next Republican President. (50% correct)


    January 27, 2004: Senator John Kerry defeated Governor Howard B. Dean III,
    February 1, 2000: Vice President Al Gore defeated Senator Bill Bradley
    February 20, 1996: President Bill Clinton (no serious opposition)
    February 18, 1992: Senator Paul Tsongas defeated Governor Bill Clinton
    February 16, 1988: Governor Michael Dukakis defeated Con Richard A. “Dick” Gephardt
    February 28, 1984: Senator Gary Hart defeated Vice President Walter Mondale,
    February 26, 1980: President Jimmy Carter defeated Senator Edward Kennedy
    February 24, 1976: Governor Jimmy Carter defeated Congressman Mo Udall,
    March 7, 1972: Senator Edmund Muskie defeated Senator George McGovern
    March 12, 1968: President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Senator Eugene McCarthy
    March 10, 1964: President Lyndon B. Johnson (no serious opposition)
    March 8, 1960: Senator John F. Kennedy defeated businessman Paul C. Fisher
    March 13, 1956: Senator Estes Kefauver defeated Governor Adlai E. Stevenson II
    March 11, 1952: Senator Estes Kefauver defeated President Harry S. Truman


    -New Hampshire is correct 5/14 time in selecting the nominee for the democrats when there is no opposition. (38% correct)

    -New Hampshire is 4/12 in selecting the next democratic president (33% correct)

  92. Jacon Katzenberg Says:

    NH State Reps appeal to NH GOP over FOX follies

    Posted by Jane Aitken on

    Note: Not all these State Reps are actually supporting Dr. Paul, some are, some aren’t, and some other Rep supporters are not listed but I have contacted them so they can add their names too. They are for the kind of fairness we are used to in NH. - J

    Fergus Cullen
    New Hampshire Republican Party
    January 3, 2008

    We, the undersigned present and past New Hampshire House Republican State Representatives, respectfully request that unless Fox News agrees within the next 24 hours to invite Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter to participate with the other candidates at their Forum on Jan 6, 2008 you:

    1) Pull all Republican cooperation from the Fox Forum,

    2) Ask the candidates included to back out, and

    3) Go public with a formal press conference denouncing of the exclusionary anti-representational policies of Fox News


    Hon. Paul Ingbretson
    Hon. Al Baldasaro
    Hon. Howie Lund
    Hon. DJ Bettencourt
    Hon. Jason Bedrick
    Hon. Moe Villeneuve
    Hon. Dan Dumaine
    Hon. Andrew Renzullo
    Hon. Duncan Chaplin
    Hon. Laurie Boyce
    Hon. Paul Hopfgarten
    Hon. Lynne Ober
    Hon. Steve Hellwig
    Hon. Paul Mirski
    Hon. William O’Brien
    Hon. Jordan Ulery
    Hon. Pamela Manney
    Hon. Dan Itse
    Hon. Bob Boyce
    Hon. Mike Harrington
    Hon. Nancy Elliot
    Hon. Bob Mead

  93. Steve Says:

    I’d like to point out that my predictions from the other day of
    1. Tax Hike Mike
    2. Romney
    3. Paul
    4. Thompson (close to 3rd)
    5. McCain (outside shot at 3-4)
    6. Rudy
    7-8. Hunter and Keyes
    were in fact almost dead on for my precinct.
    1. Huck 24
    2. Romney 22
    3. Paul and Thompson 7
    5. McCain 6
    6. Hunter 2
    7. Rudy and Keyes 1
    I’d say the mood of the grassroots as I’ve seen is pretty disappointed, but its a disappointment tempered with realism knowing that 3-5 was polling at a toss-up. We didn’t score Dr. Paul a touchdown, but we didn’t fumble the ball either. The r[3VOL]ution lives to fight another day.

  94. rj Says:

    ^ So a field goal? ;)