Iowa Caucus Predictions, Anyone?

Here is the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s outline of the major party candidates for the Iowa caucuses. The Hedgehog Report has been brave enough to lay out some numbers in their predictions:

Republicans:
Romney 36%
Huckabee 26%
McCain 11%
Thompson 9%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 2%

Democrats:
Hillary 38%
Edwards 33%
Obama 27%
Other 2%

They are placing bets over at Ron Paul Forums. Here is the first of them:


GOP—————————-

1 - Romney 27%
2 - Paul 20%
3 - McCain 18%
4 - Huck 18%
5 - Guiliani 7%

Markos at DailyKos says “who the hell knows” about Iowa. A local predition provides Obama-Edwards-Clinton and Huckabee-Romney-McCain (with Ron Paul doing sixth place or worse). An early prediction at the same site predicts the following:

IOWA CAUCUS PREDICITION WITH 15% THRESHOLD:

Edwards - 35%
Obama - 30%
Clinton - 20%
Biden - 15%
Dodd - 0%
Richardson - 0%
Kucinich - 0%
Gravel - 0%

IOWA CAUCUS PREDICITION WITHOUT 15% THRESHOLD:

Edwards - 26%
Obama - 23%
Clinton - 19%
Biden - 14%
Dodd - 7%
Richardson - 6%
Kucinich - 6%
Gravel - 0%

Donny Ferguson’s prognostications here:

Mitt Romney - 33%
Mike Huckabee - 29%
Fred Thompson - 16%
John McCain - 10%
Rudy Guiliani - 6%
Ron Paul - 5%
Duncan Hunter - 1%
Alan Keyes - 0%

Hillary Clinton - 40%
Barack Obama - 27%
John Edwards - 25%
Bill Richardson - 5%
Joe Biden - 1%
Chris Dodd - 1%
Dennis Kucinich - 1%
Mike Gravel - 0%

Strategic vision has recent Iowa polling data here.

I’ll go out on a limb and make my best guesses. For the Republicans, it will be Huckabee in first and Romney in second. The guessing is tougher with the rest of the GOP field, and I’m expecting to see Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain clustered somewhat tightly. Let’s try this order: McCain, Giuliani, Paul, Thompson. The lower the turnout, the better it will be for Paul and the worst it will be for Giuliani. However, the weather is predicted to be rather nice for Iowa. If the turnout is really low, it could even go Paul, McCain, Thompson, Giuliani for the second tier of Republicans.

The Democratic side is tougher and I expect it to be tight. For the first round, I’ll go with this order: Obama, Edwards, Clinton.

Anyone want to take a stab at predicting the Iowa numbers? The winner gets, well, to say “I told you so!” :)

56 Responses to “Iowa Caucus Predictions, Anyone?”

  1. Bob Says:

    Twas the night of the caucus and all ‘cross the state,
    few voters are happy with the names on the slate.
    Though each name is printed on the ballot with love,
    the clear choice is missing: None of the Above.
    —Bob McCarty Writes™

  2. Ronald Kane Hardy Says:

    I always assume the worst, so I predict:

    Dems: Clinton, Obama, Edwards
    Reps: Huckabee, Romney, McCain

    Winner: Iowa Media Outlets (who will go to the bank with millions of dollars)
    Loser: The American People

    By the way, I completely support Iowa’s “first in the nation” caucus. I don’t know why they bother letting the other 49 states get involved with this process at all. But as I now live in Wisconsin (Feb. 14 primary) I believe that this will be the first election season in a long time that late primaries may actually determine the winner. I don’t think there will be a clear winner until after Wisconsin.

  3. adfhja Says:

    Ron Paul top 3 easy.

  4. Jake Porter Says:

    I have not predicted the numbers, but here are my productions for who finishes first, second, etc.

  5. Jake Porter Says:

    For some reason I didn’t get the html correct.
    http://jdporter.blogspot.com/2008/01/iowa-caucus-predictions.html

  6. Jo Daniels Says:

    Iowa Results will be

    Mitt Romney 31%
    Mike Huckabee 28%
    Fred Thompson 19%
    John McCain 11%
    Rudy Giuliani 6%
    Ron Paul 4%
    Duncan Hunter 1%
    Alan Keyes 0%

  7. Citroenist Says:

    Iowa:

    Obama 35%
    Biden 21%
    Edwards 19%
    Clinton 18%
    Richardson 4%
    Dodd 2%
    Kucinich 1%

  8. David Says:

    Iowa Republicans:

    Romney 28%
    Huckabee 22%
    Paul 18%
    McCain 12%
    Thompson 7%
    Giuliani 4%
    others

  9. Scott Says:

    Anyone who thinks Ron Paul will do worse than he is polling is being foolish. He consistently polls 6-9% in Iowa. His supporters are more likely to actually show up than anyone else’s, and he is the most likely candidate to have a large support base that is outside of the polling criteria. Turnout is embarrassingly low in Iowa (6%/88,000 people in 2000), and it will only take 25,000 votes to win the state this time around. John Zogby predicts that Paul will do consistently better than he polls, and I agree completely. Paul is a wildcard. From where I stand, I see him placing 3rd at the absolutely worst… and otherwise, the sky is the limit. Nobody has a method to accurately measure this guy’s support. Here are my predictions:

    Mike Huckabee 29%
    Mitt Romney 26%
    Ron Paul 19%
    John McCain 10%
    Fred Thompson 8%
    Rudy Giuliani 6%
    Duncan Hunter 2%
    Alan Keyes 0%

  10. Steve Says:

    I’m an Iowan, so I’ll take a stab at it:
    GOP:
    1. Tax Hike Mike - the Huckaboom is real, at least out here. You didn’t see any support for him, and then a month a go, his signs are sprouting like July corn. Iowa doesn’t have that many evangelical Christians (most everyone is Lutheran or other mainline Protestant) but this group gets mobilized to vote. Some 60% of caucus goers are evangelical or pro-life Catholic.
    2. Romney - he seems to be popular among the GOP establishment. The downside for him is that I have yet to see a Romney supporter under age 65, so a sudden ice storm will wipe him out. The good news for him is the average age of a caucus goer is about 61 and the forecast is mild.
    3. Dr. Ron Paul - Maybe its wishful thinking, or I’ve read too many blogs about how is poll numbers are low because of young people without landlines, new voters, older people who were disgusted with the Bush administration, etc. But we are polling in the margin of error for 3rd in most polls. I’ve heard more optimistic predictions from some in the campaign, but I think 3rd with about 15% is realistic. BTW, I’m fairly young, use only a cell phone, was registered “no party” until recently, and haven’t gotten one single call from any campaign or polling service. Paul also chips off some of those 60% evangelicals. I’ve met a lot of Christians in the campaign from the state chair on down. In 2004 I was a pariah in my church for backing Badnarik over Bush, today Paul over Huckabee is a respectfully difference of opinion in the congregation.
    4. Thompson - I’ve seen some polls showing him in the mid teens, just as some polls have Paul at 5% but I think both are outliers and the two are fighting for those last few % points into double digits. I wouldn’t be too surprised for Thompson to leapfrog to 3rd since he’s spent a lot of time here recently and Paul really hasn’t.
    5. McCain - I don’t even know what colors McCain uses on his yard signs and stickers, because I have yet to see one. If he has any supporters here, they sure keep it to themselves. He didn’t even do that well in Iowa in 2000, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because of the high name recognition. He has a shot at 4th and a longer shot at 3rd.
    6. Rudy - see McCain. Actually heard one of his ads on the radio, so he’s making some effort here, but I don’t expect much from him.
    7-8. Hunter and Keyes - I have no idea why Hunter is still running or why Keyes is running in the first place (actually I do know, its to pay his 2000 debts.) If Hunter wanted someone to pay attention to him, he should have followed Tancredo, dropped out, and endorsed his favorite frontrunner. Keyes did well in 2000 so he may have enough residual support that beating Hunter is a real possibility, but I suspect most of his voters have found their way to the Huckabee or Paul camps.

    Sorry, no numbers, I’m not good at math.

  11. Mike Ferguson Says:

    Republican predictions:

    Huckabee: 28%
    Romney: 27%
    McCain: 15%
    Paul: 12%
    Thompson: 10%
    Guiliani: 7%
    Hunter: 1%

    Democratic predictions:

    Clinton: 28%
    Obama: 28%
    Edwards: 26%
    Richardson: 11%
    Biden: 4%
    Dodd: 1%
    Kucinich: 1%
    Gravel: 1%

  12. adfhja Says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeFDValQhpg&feature=related

    How many other candidates have the young people of this land singing beautiful songs of love for their candidate.

    NONE

    How you gonna sing about a 5,000 year old alien reptile hyprid from Planet X - you can’t.

  13. Jason C Says:

    Republican predictions:

    Romney: 28%
    Huckabee: 24%
    Thompson: 19%
    McCain: 11%
    Paul: 9%
    Guiliani: 8%
    Hunter: 1%

  14. Charles Darwin Says:

    Ron Paul will finish a strong 3rd. That means he will be closer to 2nd than to 4th. He will discredit the polls.

  15. Jason C Says:

    Charles, I came back because I forgot to add that in my prediction. I meant to add that he was the wild card in this.

    Without fully knowing the amount of support Ron Paul will get from non-Dems/non-Reps and everything in between, Ron Paul finishing with 15-20% of the vote is not out of the question.

    The core of me says it is unlikely, but the astounding support both in followers and cash, makes a very basic point, all of that support is coming from somewhere and cash donations effectively equals votes.

  16. Steve Says:

    I haven’t followed the Dems as closely, so I’ll go with a gut feeling.
    1. Edwards - he did surprisingly well in Iowa in 2004, so he’s a known quality with good ground organization. He is highly likable and doesn’t have the high negatives that Hillary or Obama have.
    2. Hilldog - her older voters and women are more likely to come out than Obama’s college kids, so I’ll give her second.
    3. Obama - locked up most of the college vote and I’ve seen a surprising number of his signs in rural areas. My grandpa says “Obama’s too squeky-clean, they’ll chew him up in Washington, give him a few more years.” I think this type of sentiment sinks him with the older Dem activists who will dominate the meetings.
    4. Biden - now it gets interesting. The race may well be decided by the second choice of the lower candidate’s supporters rendering all of our predictions on the top 3 irrelevent. But Biden has spent a lot of time here and is really catching on with late-deciders. He’ll be viable in most every precinct so that alone secures fouth for him. I give him an slight chance of breaking the top 3 statewide if Dodd and Richardson people back him in the second round.
    5. Richardson - Seen a lot of his signs lately and he’s hit the Iraq issue hard in his ads. People seem to be finally waking up to the fact that he’s the only one on the D side who will pull our troops out of Iraq (how else would we have the manpower for invading Darfur?). Richardson wasn’t that bad of a governor, I’d caucus for him just for the heck of it if Paul wasn’t running.
    6. Dodd - moved his family here in the fall and spends most of his effort here, without much to show for it. His ace in the hole is the firefighter’s union whose activism pushed Kerry from also-ran to winner in 04. Still, I don’t see him passing Biden, much less getting into the top 3.
    7. Kuchinich - he was competive here in 2004 and his supporters’ second choice of Edwards probably was a factor in the latter’s success, but I just don’t see him having any impact this time around.
    8. Gravel - the Alan Keyes of the Democrats. If any one actually supports him in Iowa, they’d be better off just staying at home and watching the Orange Bowl game.

  17. Scott Smith Says:

    Both Robert Novak & the Washington Post have predicted a win for Huckabee and Obama. Obama is surging tremendously, they report, because both Biden and Kucinich are endorsing Obama as the second choice if they don’t make the required 15% in each district’s caucus. No one thinks Huckabee will last past New Hampshire b/c he will run out of money and Romney will beat him badly in NH, where he is well known (and owns a house). NH is, after all, right next to Mass.

  18. michael cathcart Says:

    Romney - 25%
    Huckabee - 22%
    Paul - 18%
    McCain - 13%
    Thompson - 12%
    Guliani - 8%
    Hunter - > 1%
    Keyes -

  19. Thomas L. Knapp Says:

    From last week:

    http://knappster.blogspot.com/2007/12/caucus-countdown.html

    I’m starting to get the feeling that Edwards will take a surprise first in Iowa, but it’s just a feeling. I’m still calling Edwards, Clinton and Obama within a five-point spread any way you cut it.

    Interesting that so many others are predicting Paul in third on the GOP side as well. I think Romney rather than Huckabee will pull out a bare win, though.

  20. Chris Says:

    I thank God that I do not live in Iowa. I am a big Virginia Tech fan! Having to choose between the caucus and the Hokies would be tough.

    Here are my predications:

    (1) 28% Romney. He has Huck beat on organization.
    (2) 22% Huckabee. The polls aren’t THAT wrong.
    (3) 18% Paul. Make no mistake, this will be huge since I think Paul will end up close behind Huck.
    (4) 12% McCain. He’s quickly becoming most Republicans second choice, and I believe he may ultimately win the nomination.
    (5) 9% Thompson. He draw less than he polls.
    (6) 6% Guiliani. He’ll draw about what he polls or less.
    (7) 4% Keyes. The man got 14% for 3rd in the 2000 Iowa caucus. He’ll get some votes again, but just enough to beat Hunter.
    (8) 1% Hunter.

    I’m going out on a limb predicting 18% for Paul and 4% for Keyes. I would not be surprised to see Paul much lower, but I would be surprised if McCain and Thompson were much higher.

  21. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Ok, these are really more guesses than predictions… I honestly wouldn’t be too surprised no matter who wins. It’s a toss up, particularly for the Dems.

    REPUBLICANS—————————Huckabee - 32%
    Romney -28%
    Thompson - 14%
    McCain - 11%
    Paul - 7%
    Giuliani - 5%
    Keyes - 2%
    Hunter - 1%

    (I think Thompson and McCain have been picking up steam, McCain because of the endorsements and Thompson because he’s staked his whole campaign and organization on a zany all-out bus tour of the state. So either of them might do a bit better. If McCain breaks past 20%—the whole race is over with.)

    DEMOCRATS—————————Edwards - 27%
    Obama - 26%
    Clinton - 23%
    Biden - 11%
    Richardson - 7%
    Dodd - 4%
    Kucinich - 2%
    Gravel - less than 1%

    (Biden in fourth place might give him just enough juice to continue on into New Hampshire, but if he’s fifth he’s dropping out before NH. Edwards wins a lot of second choices… but so does Obama.)

  22. G.E. Says:

    G.E. Smith leadpipe locks:

    Huckabee
    Romney
    Paul (15%)
    McCain
    Thompson
    Giuliani
    Other

    Austin thinks Paul will only get 7%? i.e. the polls over-estimate his strength? I’ll guarantee he tops 10%. Fifteen percent is a modest prediction, in my opinion.

  23. Lex Says:

    The big surprises in Iowa are going to be Obama (for winning by such a large margin), and Ron Paul (for finishing a close third.)

    Obama has a caucus organization unlike any other candidate, this year or in any previous year. He’s even in the polls with Clinton and Edwards, but he’s going to get a much higher turnout rate. Instead of the 30-35% people are predicting, I will put him down for 41%.

    Romney is going to win Iowa. He’s got the best organization on the Republican side, and caucuses are all about organization. Huckabee doesn’t have much of one, but the FairTaxers and the churches will make up for that. I’ll call it 33% for Mitt, 29% for Huck.

    Ron Paul will shock the pundits with 23% of the vote. He’s already polling ahead of Giuliani and even with Thompson, and his voters are much more motivated and much better organized. McCain is ahead in the polls, but has neither organization nor enthusiasm.

    Ron Paul has over 1200 DONORS in Iowa. If the normal ratio of 100 voters per donor held, he would win the caucus in a cakewalk. Since Ron Paul supporters are much more likely to donate than your typical supporter, he won’t have the typical ratio, probably more like 20 voters per donor.

  24. DWornock Says:

    Ron Paul will receive the most votes but after the private company tallies the the votes and give the results, Ron Paul will come in 6th with 5 percent of the vote.

  25. Jason C Says:

    Ron Paul, Fred Thompson Lead Newsmax Poll:

    Newsmax’s Internet primary poll of the Republican race for president is released today - with more than 400,000 respondents to our non-scientific survey.

    With 23% of the vote, Congressman Ron Paul wins our online survey. Paul has the most aggressive internet presence of any Republican candidate and has already won several online polls, not to mention raising $20 million last quarter, mostly online.

    Pulling solid numbers behind Paul were Fred Thompson with 19% of the vote, and Mike Huckabee, a late rising star, with 16%.

    Read the rest:
    www.newsmax.com/insidecover/newsmax_poll_leaders/2008/01/02/61241.html

  26. Brian Says:

    I predict if Paul finishes in the top 3 the media will say it doesn’t matter or isn’t important etc. If he finishes 5th or 6th they will say his campaign is dead or close to it.

  27. Rolf Lindgren Says:

    The odds that Ron Paul will get 4th or worse are slim and none; and slim is out of town.

  28. Hugh Jass Says:

    My predictions:

    1. Romney 37%
    2. Huckabee 27%
    3. Paul 11%
    4. McCain 10%
    5. Thompson 7%
    6. Giuliani 7%
    7. Hunter 1%

    1. Obama 35%
    2. Edwards 31%
    3. Clinton 30%
    4. Richardson 2%
    5. Biden 1%
    6. Dodd 1%

  29. Johnjacson Says:

    Romney
    Huck
    McCain
    Thompson
    Giuliani
    Hunter
    Paul
    Keyes

  30. Trent Hill Says:

    Romney: 30%
    Huckabee: 28%
    Ron Paul: 14%
    John McCain: 13%
    Fred Thompson: 8%
    Rudy Giuliani: 6%
    Duncan Hunter: 1%
    Alan Keyes: 0%

    Edward finishes a surprising second, after Obama.

  31. Adam SC Says:

    Democratic side:

    Edwards: 26%
    Obama: 23%
    Biden: 19%
    Clinton: 18%
    Richardson: 9%
    Dodd: 3%
    Kucinich: 2%

    Republican side:

    Romney
    Huckabee
    McCain
    Guiliani
    Thompson

  32. Nathanael Kraintz Says:

    Dems 1st Round

    Obama - 26%
    Clinton - 20%
    Edwards - 19%
    Biden - 15%
    Richardson - 5%
    Dodd - 4%
    Kucinich - 2%
    Gravel -

  33. Donny Ferguson Says:

    All the folks thinking Ron will finish second or third are forgetting this is a Republican caucus, not an open primary, and even if it were most of the anti-war voters (as in Iowa residents who actually cast votes) will be voting for Obama or Kucinich over in the Democrat caucus.

    I support Ron, I have his sticker on my car and I send him money, but I don’t want to turn on my computer Friday morning and hear people claiming the voting machines are rigged if he gets single digits. That’s not a comment on Ron or his campaign, it’s a comment on the voters who populate the Republican caucus.

  34. Hugh Jass Says:

    Mr. Ferguson, since you can register Republican at the caucus site, it is effectively an open caucus.

  35. Donny Ferguson Says:

    Checking back a few months, Ron finished fifth in the Straw Poll with less than 10 percent, which has even looser voting requirements than the Caucus.

    Again, Ron’s a fine man and running a fine campaign that employs many of my friends and he’s going to make a good showing considering what he’s up against. I’m going to continue supporting him until he drops out, or somehow wins.

    But considering what he’s up against I don’t want to hear people whining, claiming conspiracies and threatening to quit if he doesn’t finish higher than fourth. Keep in mind he’s running in closed Republican primaries and caucuses, or in open ones with a competitive Democrat contest eating up the anti-war voters. He’s running a good campaign and is doing a great job making our foreign policy and we should continue supporting him and sending in money

  36. Cody Quirk Says:

    I don’t want Huckabee to win Iowa.

    I don’t care about Romney, I just don’t want that Arkansas SOB to win!

    I’m already praying for Huck to lose.

  37. G.E. Says:

    DF - A lot has changed in the past few months. Iowa is NOT a “closed” caucus. See above.

  38. Austin Cassidy Says:

    GE, fair enough. Like I said this could go any way.

    It wouldn’t shock me if the results for McCain and Paul flipped. Even though McCain’s support has ticked up a little bit… he has zip organization in the state and wasn’t active much until he got the Register’s endorsement.

    The polls might be over-stating or under-stating Paul’s real support. Remember that these caucuses require people to head out in the cold and sit around in a church basement with their grandparents for the entire evening. And then, in many cases, to publicly walk to a different side of the room than their grandparents and declare their support for a very different kind of Republican candidate in front of their whole town.

    Paul has some of the most dedicated supporters, no doubt. But he also has many of the youngest ones… and those are very unpredictable. I personally know both types of Ron Paul supporter. Ones who would follow the Ron Paul blimp around up and down the East Coast. And ones who hate politics and just sort of hope that he wins. But that second group doesn’t care enough to go something complicated and unpleasant for him.

    I could see Ron Paul finishing anywhere from 5% to 20%. Lower if the college students stay in and drink beer to stay warm. Or higher if everyone comes out in full force during a low turn-out election and they really swamp everything.

  39. G.E. Says:

    Austin - You’re totally wrong. You’re describing the Democratic caucus rules. The Republicans do not do things that way. They just vote.

    Where do you live that you don’t have people standing on street corners waving Ron Paul signs for two hours a day every weekend? You think these people aren’t going to get out and vote? You think they give a fuck what their parasitic grandparents think?

  40. Hugh Jass Says:

    “Checking back a few months, Ron finished fifth in the Straw Poll with less than 10 percent, which has even looser voting requirements than the Caucus.”

    And you seem to be forgeting that three of his opponents have dropped out since then (two of which got better results than he did). Also, when the straw poll was held, Paul has almost no organization in Iowa and had barely visited the state. His organization has exponentially grown since then.

  41. Trent Hill Says:

    Hugh Jass

    22 paid staffers and 250 students crisscrossing the state,all cavanssing for the good doctor.

    not to mention the couple of hundred unpaid activists.

  42. Austin Cassidy Says:

    GE, a fair point… I was wrong on the secret ballot element. Thinking of the Democrat’s process.

    This is still more public than a primary though… because you still have to show up and vote in those meetings held all at once. They’re still in church basements filled with old people, etc.

    But I already conceeded that he could get anywhere from 5 to 20%. It’s a total crap shoot. His supporters are clearly the most dedicated of any candidate… I don’t dispute that either.

    I tend to think seven or eight percent is most likely where he’ll finish—but we’ll know soon enough.

  43. Johnjacson Says:

    Even though I support RP, I tend to agree with the pessimists and “crap shoot” crowd.

    I would not be surprised with 3rd and I would not be surprised with 6th.

    I agree with DF about not launching into vote tampering conspiracy stuff if he finishes lower than rabid supporters’ expectations.

  44. Johnjacson Says:

    In other words, despite what a lot of nuts think, it is possible to support Ron Paul and still be in touch with reality.

  45. Trent Hill Says:

    7-8%? You estimate his support is LOWER than the polls Austin? lol.

  46. Thomas L. Knapp Says:

    Not a Paul supporter myself, but I predict that he’ll easily do better than traditional polling indicates.

    Even though the GOP caucus is less of a strain than the Democratic procedure, it’s still a low-turnout affair in which “Get Out The Vote” makes a huge difference—and Paul’s support pool is packed with people who will leave their cars and friggin’ walk ten miles in the cold to vote for him if they have a flat tire on the way.

    If Paul polls less than 10%, I’ll be suspicious of the process. It’s not that he has as many supporters as Romney or Huckabee, it’s that the support pool for Romney and Huckabee is much more heavily packed at the “there’s a sale on Charmin at the store? There’s something interesting on TV? Ah, screw it—I didn’t feel like going out to vote anyway.”

  47. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Howard Dean’s supporters were pretty darn hardcore as well…. it’s always a risk when you’re relying on young voters as much as the Paul campaign is. But honestly, I don’t know… 7-8% feels about right to me. But it could be 18% and I wouldn’t be totally shocked. Overall turnout is going to be a huge factor here—and we’ll just have to wait a few hours and see what happens.

    One of the things that’s been kind of funny is the expectations game. Every candidate’s supporters are trying to play down expectations so that any showing seems like a good showing. But Ron Paul supporters are running around saying they expect he’ll finish third or better and win 15% or more.

    But really you help your candidate more when you lower or moderate the expectations for him or her.

    Now if Ron Paul goes and finishes fourth with 11% of the vote tonight—is that a big defeat for the “easily 20%” crowd? Most would think that he exceeded expectations, but if you’re confidently predicting third or better showings… where does that leave you if it doesn’t happen?

  48. Austin Cassidy Says:

    Trent, a few polls have him above that… a few polls have him below that.

    The RCP average, which I just now looked at, has Ron Paul polling at an average of 7.3% in the last 5 major polls taken in the state. The last two polls from yesterday show him at 6% (American Research) and 10% (Zogby).

    So no, I’m in fact not predicting he’ll do worse than the polling.

  49. Johnjacson Says:

    Most RP supporters don’t know about the expectations game. A high % don’t get the reality comprehension game or a lot of other games either.

    They are probably reading here wondering why all of us “neo-cons” expect RP to do anything less than 95%. They probably think I am an Israeli soldier attempting to rig the election.

  50. Gary Says:

    Romney - 60%
    Huckabee - 10%
    Paul - 12%
    McCain - 8%
    Thompson - 5%
    Guliani - 5%
    Hunter - > 3%
    Keyes -

  51. Chris Says:

    Interesting observation: Pat Robertson was polling at ~11% in Iowa the day of the caucus in 1988. He ended up with 22% when the day ended. His Iowa coordinator was Drew Ivers.

    Pat Buchanan beat late poll percentages by several percent. His coordinator was Drew Ivers.

    Ron Paul’s Iowa coordinator is Drew Ivers.

  52. Austin Cassidy Says:

    That is a very interesting point, Chris. Maybe we’ll see something crazy happen here tonight.

  53. Jason C Says:

    Austin, many Paulites wear blinders when it comes to Paul numbers. He is mostly a single digit candidate. I agree, however, that Paul has the unknown factor because of that amount of money he has raised and the level of dedicated support. So I’ll be boring and say, yes, Paul can get anwhere from 10 - 20% easily but I will say conventional wisdom plays out here and he polls a respectable 10%.

    My big shocking totally biased position is this: Thompson wins second place or is within a few points of second. I think he will poll much better than 13-16% which is where most have him. However I did stumble over one poll a few hours ago that hat him in second place with 23%. We’ll soon see.

  54. Austin Cassidy Says:

    If Thompson is a distant third, he’s going to drop out and endorse McCain. In that situation, McCain will be able to pick NH, Michigan, and probably be unstoppable from there out.

    Giuliani has really fouled up by not playing in any of these early states. Bad move on his part.

  55. Jason Says:

    Yes, Giuliani will be regretting these moves for a while. He has pretty much been all but forgotten. He will still be formidable in rich delegate states but I believe this is the beginning of his end and the end of someone’s beginning.

  56. Jason Says:

    He has vehemently denied that on all counts. Then again, if he finishes 4th or worse, than everyone really has to ask the question…is it all over? NH doesn’t seem to be any kinder.

    I think this is going to be a Romney/Huckabee battle and the rest are probably not going to make that big of asplash. I was hoping Thompson could poll close to 20%, I’ll guess we’ll see in the next 30 minutes or so.

    I’m still way too curious on how Ron Paul does.