Costa Rican Libertarians Running Strong

Óscar Arias seems poised to become Costa Rica’s next President. As the candidate of the PLN party, he’s repeatedly polled around 45% during the past months. If Arias gets more than 40% of the vote in the first round, he will be declared the victor without a run-off.

Behind Arias in a solid second place is Ottón Solís of the PAC… his poll numbers have steadily improved from 16 to 24% from October to December.

Until last month, Arias had been followed by a pack of three “second tier” candidates from the PUSC, UPC, and Libertarian Movement. In December’s poll two of these candidates began to fall off. Ricardo Toledo (PUSC) and Antonio Álvarez Desanti (UPC) each saw their support drop by roughly half. Toledo falling from 10% to 6% and Desanti from 6% to 3%. This has been of great help to Libertarian candidate Otto Guevara who moved from fourth place (8%) in the November survey to an undisputed third place (14%).

Guevara still seems like an impossible long-shot, but with the race seeming to change from a 5-way to a 3-way contest anything could still happen. If he can somehow work his way into second place while holding Arias under that magic 40% mark, we could wind-up seeing a Libertarian in a one-on-one run-off for control of the Costa Rican government. Not a likely scenario, but not impossible either.

The Full Polling Figures from Angus-Reid

3 Responses to “Costa Rican Libertarians Running Strong”

  1. Tim West Says:

    the funny thing is that the LP down there had a split where the no government at all crowd lost - and of course they said the party was dead then. Looks like they were wrong.

    ‘no government’ is unsaleable in America - I dont care what kind of spin you put on it, the american people wont vote for it. The LP fortunes in this country will be directly tied to how much the LP will engage in politically possible things rather than insistance on anarchy next Wed.

  2. The Girondin Says:

    I have started blogging on Libertarian Party politics and issues from a moderate perspective. See http://thegirondin.blogspot.com

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