Election Predictions (Round One)

Here’s my take on three of Tuesday’s biggest races.

What are your feelings? Sound off on our comments page!
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VA Governor—Republican State Senator Russ Potts is an independent candidate for Governor, but his campaign has stalled at around 5% in the polls. Despite running an excellent race, I would be surprised to see him with a finish outside of the 4-7% range. My prediction: Potts - 5%

NJ Governor—Impossible to say for sure, but it seems like no third party candidate will cross much beyond 1% of the vote. Libertarian Pawlowski might finish at the front of the third party pack because of his participation in the debates, but his lack of a well-funded or particularly active campaign otherwise does not help. It could go almost any way. My prediction: A slight upset as Pawlowski finishes fourth behind Hector Castillo. Neither candidate reaches the 2% mark.

NYC Mayor—Many candidates, one clear winner. As liberal Republican Bloomberg cruises to a second term, former City Councilman and Conservative Party candidate Tom Ognibene looks to score a protest vote of 2-3% from right-wingers who feel they don’t have a horse in this race. My prediction: With Republicans taking a Bloomberg win for granted, Ognibene picks up a decent 4% of the total.

16 Responses to “Election Predictions (Round One)”

  1. Douglas E. Says:

    Your predictions look pretty much on target.

  2. Angie Says:

    why do you hate pawlowski? jeff will get 5% or more next week. sabrin did that good, and they both made it to the debates.

  3. Austin Cassidy Says:

    I would love to see any of the candidates in NJ top 5% of the vote, but I just don’t see that happening. Pawlowski impressed me by finding a way into the debates, and I think he ran as good of a campaign as could be expected on such a limited budget.

    I feel pretty certain that either Castillo or Pawlowski will finish third. They both participated in the state-wide debates, and they both have names that will draw some blind “ethnic” votes.

    As I remember it, Murray Sabrin was the only minor party candidate in the debates… he did not share the stage with anyone but the Republican and Democrat. That’s not the case this year. Also, the Sabrin campaign was better funded and (because of that) more active.

    Jeff did a fine job, but I’ll be really surprised if he gets 5% of the vote.

  4. R. Paul Says:

    I have been all over the state of New Jersey in the past week, visiting Mercer, Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex and Morris counties.

    There are the ususal political signs trumpeting the various candidates for both state wide and local offices. Forrester and Corzine were ominipresent, and their signs are clearly readable and distinguishable from all the others.

    In only one county did I actually see any Pawlowski signs: a few in Monmouth County in and around the Cream Ridge Golf Course area. No surprises there.

    The signs I spotted were located on Route 539 in an area where the speed limit was about 50 mph. At first, I couldn’t actually read the signs, as the lettering was too small to be read by cars going the speed limit on that road, and the candidate’s name and party affiliation were written in cursive, not block print! Not only that, but the signs were otherwise indistinguishable from the Forrester signs, as they were both dark green in the background and monochromatic. Whatever color the lettering was, it didn’t stand out. I had to slow down to identify the name of the person on the sign.

    Everyone who has ever been involved in a state-wide political campaign knows that cursive is an absolute no-no on political signs unless you intend to use such signs on lawns and side streets only, and only if you intend a wide distribution. And you need signs with large letters and a distinctive, colorful background, particularly if you are a third-party candidate with an identification/visibility problem.

    If the Pawlowski campaign had, as a matter of campaign strategy, planned to design and exhibit a lawn or road sign that could be hidden in broad daylight, they couldn’t have done a better job than with the one they purchased. It appears that they puchased signs with an eye toward helping Forrester’s visibility.

    They certainly didn’t improve their own with those signs.

  5. Third Party Watch » Blog Archive » Election Predctions (Round Three) Says:

    [...] In the first, I focused on the three big races today. In the second, I looked only at the major Green Party candidates. Now… the best of the rest. [...]

  6. Jay Edgar Says:

    Bill,

    Perhaps you need glasses. The signs were not in cursive?

    http://pawlowski2005.org/yardsign.jpg

    I do agree that they could have been improved on though. I think bigger letters would have been good. And I think that dark letters on a white background would stand out much better.

    Jay

  7. R. Paul Says:

    The signs I saw had the name “Pawlowski” wriiten in script as in cursive handwriting. The sign message was too small to read. It was monochromatic, and backgrounded in the same dark green color as Forrester’s sign. Those signs were not designed to be used in a general way, especially on streets with a 50 MPH speed limit.

    The campaign should have known AT THE VERY LEAST not to use the same color background as a major party candidate and for the same office. Forrester has used this background color and sign design for his earlier Senate campaign as well as his recent primary campaign. Thus, the Pawlowski campaign had to be on notice that they should not use this colour. How could they be so careless and wasteful? Typical.

    Politics 101.

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